Stormtrack - 05-27-2021_ok_ks_tx_mo

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 12:30 AM

This day likely could be extended to MO, IL, etc because of the MCS that should roll through in the morning. For OK/KS, the OFB of that should be the convergence for storms.

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 06:35 AM

...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday evening from parts of the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, significant severe gusts, and several tornadoes are possible.

KS/OK/eastern TX Panhandle into the Ozarks... While it is too early in the outlook cycle to have much confidence in the potential for a significant tornado, some environmental ingredients may overlap.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 25-May-21 07:24 AM

If I have any ability to impact the weather I’m focusing all my energy to make Thursday happen lol. Likely missing Wednesday

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 25-May-21 07:34 AM

Im missing both days...

John Choquette (Edmond, OK)

If I have any ability to impact the weather I’m focusing all my energy to make Thursday happen lol. Likely missing Wednesday

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 07:45 AM

Try and slow down the frontal passage too. Lol

beard (fort worth) 25-May-21 09:40 AM

20% hatched tor incoming

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 25-May-21 10:05 AM

Only got out for one chase this year and the day I have to arrive in New Mexico for the summer we get this? Just kill me

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 11:02 AM

NAM doing NAM things and going MCS quickly. Also looks to get an early start where the OFB gets put down which triggers storms.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 11:18 AM

Interesting day.

I don't think I'll be able to chase anything but MO...

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 25-May-21 11:46 AM

27th looks wild

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 11:48 AM

Just gotta remember that a bunch of MO isn't chaseable lol

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)

Just gotta remember that a bunch of MO isn't chaseable lol

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 11:50 AM

My area of the state mostly sucks for it except for the square counties just north of me. I’ll still be out though.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 12:05 PM

This setup def has the SPC interested. Sig tors looking like a reality

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

This setup def has the SPC interested. Sig tors looking like a reality

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 12:38 PM

Lower level looks good, but too many storms may hamper the sig and long track.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 12:39 PM

storm motions will be chaotic, but with that much cape as long as we get a good cap break i think you'll see something big. might be the best chase this year

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 25-May-21 12:43 PM

Could see them go MDT sometime in the future

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 12:48 PM

Think they’ll wait on that until Thursday morning. Mainly because there’s unknowns due to Wednesday night.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 12:56 PM

there is a HUGE spread in the size and direction/location of the MCS wednesday. HRRR has it moving due east across nebraska. NAM has it movign SE into KS. some WRF have it form and build in KS going due east

if it moves south east it will take the front /w it and ruin alot of area

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 12:58 PM

Yep, that uncertainty in itself is why I’m not wanting to hype up Thursday. I’ll chase it, even an MCS, but still lots of things to sort.

4

Friday will be influenced by Thursday’s weather as well, because we could look at another OFB that enhances shear in west Texas/northern Texas.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 01:09 PM

The hodos and cape are there in MO

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 01:16 PM

It's just a question of what can use them

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 25-May-21 01:53 PM

That and no one wants to chase in MO.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 01:55 PM

Haha, it's the only option for me that week since I'm housesitting

But agreed

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 25-May-21 03:15 PM

Missouri is not awful north of I-70. However I’d much rather chase Illinois north of I-70.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 03:22 PM

I agree, south of I-70 reminds me of Mississippi and Alabama. Too many damn trees.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 04:42 PM

Yeah, models still have no idea what is happening thursday, need to get closer

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN)

Missouri is not awful north of I-70. However I’d much rather chase Illinois north of I-70.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 04:43 PM

Oh, for sure

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 05:18 PM

MO North of i70 there are radar dead spots. Lots of hills. Not great chase area

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 25-May-21 06:17 PM

18Z HRRR has Kansas nice and clear at midday Thursday, if that means anything.

3K NAM isn't bad either, although a little messy and goes MCS after a couple hours.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

MO North of i70 there are radar dead spots. Lots of hills. Not great chase area

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 06:42 PM

I try to avoid most of Missouri besides SWMO and the very far north (edited)

Original message was deleted or could not be loaded.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-May-21 07:04 PM

Might want to recheck the channel

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-May-21 07:09 PM

yes lol

sorry

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 10:01 PM

HRRR wants a couple of embedded supers in missouri

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 11:16 PM

Obviously I'd prefer discrete action, but a backyard MCS chase, I'm in

beard (fort worth) 25-May-21 11:17 PM

Derecho

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 11:20 PM

The vibe of me pulling back into St Louis mid chase on Thursday

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https://tenor.com/view/indiana-jones-running-harrison-ford-gif-14606543

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 02:03 AM

10% tornado probs

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

10% tornado probs

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 07:33 AM

That’s right in my backyard. Great flat country there right on that border (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 07:38 AM

Yep. I’m undecided about where to go tomorrow, until today is over.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 07:47 AM

It looks like it’ll be an all night drive back home to Joplin tonight for me.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 26-May-21 08:07 AM

At least Thursday night will be easy. I like the 10% placement, but be open to west and east of it too.

1

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN)

At least Thursday night will be easy. I like the 10% placement, but be open to west and east of it too.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 08:30 AM

Yeah, right now, I was thinking SW of the 10%, where it might stay discrete longer. But today will impact tomorrow, so nothing is locked in.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 26-May-21 08:30 AM

Definitely.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 26-May-21 11:52 AM

it looks like there’s a lot of area to choose from for tomorrow. I think I’m going to set up in OKC by early morning

The 12Z NAM is showing high cape and TOR’s on the soundings in SW, central Oklahoma and SW KS tomorrow

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 12:00 PM

MO is full of decent hodos too. I've chased on days with less SRH

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 12:01 PM

I’m going to chase towards home tonight and try to get a few hours sleep before I hit it again probably in OK. (edited)

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 12:04 PM

Storm mode still very unsure

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 26-May-21 12:07 PM

I think a westerly target may have a better chance of staying discreet, but some soundings near Tulsa really favor strong tor’s for tomorrow. I think this is going to be a sit and wait deal

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 12:08 PM

KC area looks promising for some super ed

supercells

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 12:10 PM

I gotta be back in STL Friday morning with current plans, KC could be a play for me

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 26-May-21 12:27 PM

Sounds like I'll have a nice view from my 3rd floor office in Olathe

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 26-May-21 12:41 PM

South-central Missouri... Because storms can always find worse terrain than Mississippi.

6

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-May-21 12:43 PM

I would be willing to wager significant portions of the state of Wisconsin in the running for worst terrain

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 01:35 PM

Update

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 26-May-21 02:04 PM

Spent the past few days driving from New England but going to miss KS today. Fingers crossed for an embedded sup or QLCS tornado in MO.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 02:48 PM

I feel like there's a good chance for embedded stuff tomorrow in Missouri. Hodographs are favorable for supercells (edited)

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 03:15 PM

Not too contaminated

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 03:32 PM

Depending on the intensity of the low, and the positioning...

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 26-May-21 04:00 PM

Really a toss up, I don’t like the geography of S MO, but decent helicity values in SErn IA.

Calvin Thomas (De Soto, MO) 26-May-21 04:19 PM

Rev up those fryers, cuz I sure am hungry for one supercell (dependent on several factors including the initial line of storms earlier in the afternoon)!

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 04:23 PM

Where are you based right now?

@Calvin Thomas (De Soto, MO) haha, was wondering when you'd pick that cell up on the HRRR, just saw it

Calvin Thomas (De Soto, MO) 26-May-21 04:39 PM

Ah crap, forgot to change my nickname. I’m based out of De Soto for the summer

Definitely on high alert tonight and tomorrow, planning on doing either some spotting or local chasing

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 26-May-21 06:03 PM

We just got into the Belleville IL/STL area for the night, gonna re-eval in the morning but fingers crossed we get even a tiny bit of what’s going on today

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 07:08 PM

Interesting change

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 07:13 PM

Do I chase MO tomorrow?

I think there could be some real good cells

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 26-May-21 07:24 PM

18z hrrr just confirms it has zero damn clue about tomorrow.

..when that happens you chase

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL)

..when that happens you chase

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 07:40 PM

Hah! That's one way to look at it

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-May-21 07:40 PM

I will be chasing MO tomorrow with @Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 26-May-21 07:42 PM

Where are you thinking is best? We're looking northern MO, southern IA.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 07:43 PM

Northern MO, certainly

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-May-21 07:43 PM

Basically the same, but see how it evolves as the MCS from today figures its life out

Jacob Punch (Kansas City)

Do I chase MO tomorrow?

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 07:43 PM

I'd say yes, it's fairly local

We'll hopefully know a lot better tomorrow morning

Seeing what the(potential) mcs does in the morning is important (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-May-21 07:45 PM

Looks like early initiation though, both CAMs are agreed on around a 20z go time

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 26-May-21 07:50 PM

Yeah every run of the HRRR/NAMNEST has been inconsistent. Guess we'll see tomorrow!

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 26-May-21 08:10 PM

Don’t sleep on that Enid cell at 17z

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 26-May-21 08:14 PM

Oh lovely! I'll either be running up I-44 or I-35 in the big rig tomorrow afternoon!

Calvin Thomas (De Soto, MO) 26-May-21 08:32 PM

If any of you end up in my hometown come say hi lol

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 09:49 PM

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) Yes. That is why I never chase N/NW of MBY

Lol the HRRR

I am NOT going to TX damn it

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 26-May-21 10:47 PM

Where are we thinking tomorrow

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX)

Where are we thinking tomorrow

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 10:48 PM

Bed

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-May-21 10:48 PM

Western OK

Triple Point

2

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 26-May-21 10:48 PM

I was thinking Tulsa yo Joplin tomorrow to start

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-May-21 10:48 PM

We will see how the morning CAMs handle MO.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 26-May-21 10:49 PM

Western Oklahoma?

That’s a closer trip for me

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 26-May-21 10:49 PM

I was thinking some panhandle TP magic may be on tap

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 26-May-21 10:51 PM

Waiting on 7am update / surface obs. Originally was planning N OK / SE KS

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 26-May-21 10:58 PM

Gonna be a whole mess of OFB tomorrow

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 10:58 PM

Yeah same @Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK)

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 26-May-21 10:59 PM

Might still play my original N OK / SE KS area since it’s closer to me than western Oklahoma. If it’s a bust there, oh well

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 10:59 PM

I guess silver lining of busting today is I'm in DDC which is a good spot to head either way from.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-May-21 11:00 PM

Really am curious on why the 10% isn’t extended into western ok

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 26-May-21 11:05 PM

I suspect the warm front will be a good play. And the 10% not being extended west is probably an indicator that the TP/DL isn't the greatest Tor chance.

beard (fort worth) 26-May-21 11:14 PM

Derechoooooo

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 11:19 PM

Seems like it will be early and the atmosphere may be worked over

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-May-21 11:23 PM

Probably will be underwhelming as hell in Oklahoma lol

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 26-May-21 11:24 PM

I know the default for chasers is TP/DL, but I tend to prefer the WF. That's definitely where I'm different from most plains chasers.

beard (fort worth) 26-May-21 11:31 PM

I just go where I think stermz will be the best. I don't care which boundary/front it's on.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 11:34 PM

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 11:34 PM

lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 11:34 PM

I'ma just leave this here

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 11:34 PM

Was just gonna say, 0Z HRRR nails the metro

hard nope

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-May-21 11:35 PM

I would love the metro to get blasted so I can stay ultra local lol

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 11:35 PM

If I had a sick sense of humor I would just go to Moore tomorrow.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-May-21 11:35 PM

But not with a tornado

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 11:35 PM

...so I just might have to lol

beard (fort worth) 26-May-21 11:39 PM

If I could get out tomorrow I'd play Quanah, TX and maybe a little farther west. The convergence will be Tulsa to okc

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-May-21 11:44 PM

I need a tornado before the week is over

Its gonna be tomorrow

beard (fort worth) 26-May-21 11:46 PM

You just jinxed yourself .

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 11:46 PM

Mike Morgan is going to shit down both pant legs

3

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-May-21 11:48 PM

3

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 11:52 PM

Tomorrow looks absolutely messy in central OK

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 11:52 PM

Northwest flow, couple isolated cells. And MCS is always a risk

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 11:52 PM

Yeah, I mean, you won’t bust at least.

I’m probably chasing western OK tomorrow.

And just hope it stays discrete for an hour before growing upscale.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 12:13 AM

so my target is moore? great!

1

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 12:28 AM

No spring is complete without at least once hearing Mike and David square off with dueling choppers. I can hear it now

3

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo)

No spring is complete without at least once hearing Mike and David square off with dueling choppers. I can hear it now

beard (fort worth) 27-May-21 12:38 AM

We don't have that in dfw. 3 stations use the feed from the same helicopter then channel 5 has their own.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-May-21 12:38 AM

Northern OK/Western OK looks good

For tornadoes really...don’t go to Far East or else you’ll get a messy mode a lot faster

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 01:36 AM

1

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 01:52 AM

Wtf

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 27-May-21 01:54 AM

I’m trying to decide if it’s worth it to drive four hours south to Springfield to chase QLCS tornadoes or just not bother and pass on the chase

Springfield, IL, not MO

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 01:57 AM

I normally am not a big critic of the Spc but they fucked this outlook up. Not only should it still be 10%, but it should be hatched too.

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL)

I normally am not a big critic of the Spc but they fucked this outlook up. Not only should it still be 10%, but it should be hatched too.

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 27-May-21 01:58 AM

Trust me I bully them all the time

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 02:00 AM

So they went full send today and it fucked them, so they go conservative. Makes sense

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 27-May-21 02:03 AM

Wording in the outlook said they may reintroduce the 10% once details about morning convection & boundaries become clearer At this time there is too much uncertainty regarding the evolution of the early-day convection and the possibility for disrupting cold pool. When these boundaries are identified later today there may be a region where higher potential for a few tornadoes can be addressed.

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 27-May-21 02:03 AM

^ I read that too.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 27-May-21 02:04 AM

In the same boat as you about driving @Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU)

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 02:05 AM

There will be a violent tornado today. Book it

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK)

In the same boat as you about driving @Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU)

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 27-May-21 02:05 AM

It’s such a hard call. Like, yes I want to see a tornado, but at the same time, is it really worth it to go to central Illinois when it’s just an MCS?

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 02:05 AM

I’m driving through Fort smith right now

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 27-May-21 02:05 AM

Make sure to stop at that loves in Webber’s falls! @Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL)

1

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 02:06 AM

Will do.

Pro tip: never eat the Loves tacos

2

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 27-May-21 02:07 AM

Wasn’t even planning on targeting western Oklahoma, was thinking more northern Oklahoma. Still sticking to my 7am check

The love’s corn dogs are a 10/10

1

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 02:07 AM

Targeting OKC to Wichita Falls

3

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 27-May-21 02:08 AM

Man if it wasn’t a 13 hour drive I would go down to southwest Oklahoma, scoop up my girlfriend and take her on a chase. Now wouldn’t that be something

I’ll see what I do in the morning

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 27-May-21 02:11 AM

Good luck to whatever you do @Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) !

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK)

Good luck to whatever you do @Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) !

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 27-May-21 02:12 AM

You too man! Safe travels if you do decide to get after this one!

1

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 27-May-21 02:17 AM

@Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) trying to teach a friend about both boundary interaction and how storms create and modify their own shear environment at the moment because he doesn’t see how tomorrow’s environment could be supportive of a violent tornado.

I’m not far along enough in my degree path to give him a really good, educational answer, however I’m trying my best

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 02:25 AM

Without the ofb there would be zero tornadoes tomorrow. OFBs assist in maximizing vorticity. You add 4000+ cape and it could go boom.

Not all boundaries are equal though

And if that storm can root on the boundary you can get a long tracker, but the orientation of the OFB is key

Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY) 27-May-21 02:38 AM

My virtual target is OKC proper tomorrow. The FV3 seems to have a better handle on the surface features esp from today. Take my advice at your own risk. (edited)

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL)

Without the ofb there would be zero tornadoes tomorrow. OFBs assist in maximizing vorticity. You add 4000+ cape and it could go boom.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 27-May-21 02:39 AM

Cameron and I basically said the same thing to him

(in regards to that entire statement).

Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY)

My virtual target is OKC proper tomorrow. The FV3 seems to have a better handle on the surface features esp from today. Take my advice at your own risk. (edited)

Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY) 27-May-21 02:50 AM

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 27-May-21 09:07 AM

Where's everyone targeting? I'm not chasing but I've got a buddy that has no meteorological experience and he was targeting ICT and I don't think that's gonna be a great idea.

Payton (Lawrence, KS)

Where's everyone targeting? I'm not chasing but I've got a buddy that has no meteorological experience and he was targeting ICT and I don't think that's gonna be a great idea.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-May-21 09:09 AM

Yeah I’m going to western OK

Seems like HRRR puts out more isolated supercells along that dryline further west

Definitely could see a couple tornadoes today

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 27-May-21 09:10 AM

Thanks, I'll give him OK as an option now.

Payton (Lawrence, KS)

Where's everyone targeting? I'm not chasing but I've got a buddy that has no meteorological experience and he was targeting ICT and I don't think that's gonna be a great idea.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 09:11 AM

Definitely not ICT. Has to go further south. Today, you have to find a boundary and hope you get a storm that interacts to increase low level shear. Otherwise, this is a wind and hail threat.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-May-21 09:12 AM

Could be an “oops all baseballs” day lol

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 09:12 AM

You can easily trash the models today. They aren’t going to pick up the boundaries. And yeah, today is “oh shit, I lost my windshield” day.

So perfect day for and the team @John Choquette (Edmond, OK)

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-May-21 09:13 AM

Yes lol

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 09:13 AM

Now just wait, we’ll get baseballs in OKC to add to the Norman stuff.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-May-21 09:14 AM

Wouldn’t be mad about it lol if my car got totaled I would be fine with it. Was gonna replace it this summer anyway. The insurance check would be nice

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL)

Targeting OKC to Wichita Falls

beard (fort worth) 27-May-21 09:16 AM

Such a broad ass area lol

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 09:17 AM

Targeting OK/TX

Might be fort Stockton, might be Miami

1

On the more serious side, going to be leaving here in an hour. Headed to NC OK, west of OKC for the early storms. See if any ride the boundary put down

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Might be fort Stockton, might be Miami

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 09:20 AM

Come up to Miami and we can grab lunch at the KuKu

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo)

Come up to Miami and we can grab lunch at the KuKu

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 09:21 AM

I’ll go to the real Miami

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 09:21 AM

Jeff Mangum (Austin, TX) 27-May-21 09:56 AM

Heading to Childress, TX. We’ll see if TX can get it done

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 10:01 AM

Looks like a couple of OFBs on sat in the NE TX PH and one pushing SE through SW KS/OK PH

It seems like today's prime target has shifted to not be on the way home from today's as I'd hoped but on the plus side that generally puts it over better terrain.

1

beard (fort worth) 27-May-21 10:13 AM

There's 1 pushing s/se out of the OK pan handle.

Followed by the warm front side of the tp

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo)

Come up to Miami and we can grab lunch at the KuKu

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-May-21 10:21 AM

Kuku is like the only real tasty place in Miami lol

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Definitely not ICT. Has to go further south. Today, you have to find a boundary and hope you get a storm that interacts to increase low level shear. Otherwise, this is a wind and hail threat.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 27-May-21 10:32 AM

Don't ever choose ICT for a target...ever...never ever.....forever. Bigly mistake.

2

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 27-May-21 10:36 AM

Coming from STL area, we’re going to be shooting for East of OKC around 20Z.

2

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 10:49 AM

Bring your chainsaw

2

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 10:54 AM

And a helmet

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS)

Don't ever choose ICT for a target...ever...never ever.....forever. Bigly mistake.

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 27-May-21 11:02 AM

Talking about Wichita?

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 27-May-21 11:28 AM

Yeah we were slow on the uptake this morning, haven’t even left stl yet, so gonna take what we can get. Needed a new windshield anyway.

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH)

Yeah we were slow on the uptake this morning, haven’t even left stl yet, so gonna take what we can get. Needed a new windshield anyway.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 11:32 AM

You won’t make it to OKC by 20z unless you’re on a rocket

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 27-May-21 11:43 AM

Looks like today will be a local

chase for me

Adam Cibarich (Laconia, NH) 27-May-21 11:46 AM

@Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) yeah, we’ll just have to play it by ear. Beggars can’t be choosers right?

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 27-May-21 11:47 AM

@Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) really not sure. I'm still going out, nam3k is semi optimistic. Depends what the recovery behind this blob in the middle of missouri is

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)

@Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) really not sure. I'm still going out, nam3k is semi optimistic. Depends what the recovery behind this blob in the middle of missouri is

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 27-May-21 11:55 AM

Hmm true, my friends and I are currently on I-70 East in Kansas almost to Salina, Kansas. I noticed 2 cells on Nam3K that look pretty good on I-70 in the Columbia Missouri area.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 12:31 PM

Watch comin for ok.

Tornado watch.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 12:39 PM

The juice is loose here in Chickasha

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 12:43 PM

In Beaver gonna head towards Woodward

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 12:44 PM

80d over 70s in central OK

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 27-May-21 12:50 PM

Boundary from Enid to Clinton. CF way up in Kansas. Time for an Oklahoma day!

Kris N (Columbia, MO) 27-May-21 12:54 PM

I’m hoping for some action here in Columbia mo. But I’m very nervous that this rain that has been going on for hours now is just going to kill any chances here (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-May-21 12:54 PM

The cold front just made its way through here about an hour and a half ago. It’s booking it southeast

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 01:01 PM

Headed to the tail end Charlie.

Looked the best from the north at least.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 01:06 PM

mesoanalysis, pink = increasing risk

1

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 27-May-21 01:07 PM

Nice

developing in central IL at the moment

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 01:10 PM

Just passed an OU DOw truck.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 01:17 PM

Where?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 01:18 PM

Near oak wood

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 01:20 PM

First severe warnings popping

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 01:21 PM

much like yesterday, i expect the current storms in OK to be long-live and mature as the day goes on

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 01:27 PM

We’re heading up 81 through Texas now towards Duncan

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

much like yesterday, i expect the current storms in OK to be long-live and mature as the day goes on

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 27-May-21 01:31 PM

Warm front magic

Royce, I think we're the lone members of the warm front magic club as far as how we target given a choice

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 01:36 PM

i'll make sure we get those as bumper stickers. # team warm front magic

2

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 27-May-21 02:10 PM

I'll rock that sticker for sure

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 02:10 PM

Those cells north of OKC got messy fast

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 27-May-21 02:14 PM

whats the CINH out there

here we go, first TOR

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 02:16 PM

CINH? WHATS CINH? (there is none)

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK)

Warm front magic

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 02:17 PM

looks like my call of riding the warm front / boundary in N OK was the right call. AGAIN

gonna be nasty grinders, but they should produce all afternoon. maybe some more comign in from the SW as well

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

looks like my call of riding the warm front / boundary in N OK was the right call. AGAIN

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 27-May-21 02:18 PM

I knew it too, warm fronts are always the best for it

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

looks like my call of riding the warm front / boundary in N OK was the right call. AGAIN

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 27-May-21 02:20 PM

I was saying the same thing last night. #teamwarmfront

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 27-May-21 02:21 PM

There really wasn't a warm front there though was there?

I thought that was just a residual boundary from storms from last night...with a CF coming in behind.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 02:22 PM

it was really more of a wind shift, but there was a differential heating boundary

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 27-May-21 02:23 PM

Therefore a warm front. The residual boundary focused it, but it's a WF nonetheless

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 27-May-21 02:24 PM

I guess when I think of warm front I think of warm air advecting into cooler air. That really wasn't happening was it?

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 27-May-21 02:25 PM

I gotta get going. I'll be running up 44 the whole way lol

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS)

I guess when I think of warm front I think of warm air advecting into cooler air. That really wasn't happening was it?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 02:27 PM

in this case, it was, it just wasn't very pronounced. subtle forcing occuring. was not noticable on radar vels, but on station OBS you could see by the heating changes and it matches satelite. effecitvely the old boundary became the focus for the vorcity along the front

i think it was actually the intersection of 2 boundaries, because 1 was WSW to ENE, and the 2nd was NW to SE

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 27-May-21 02:31 PM

Gotcha...I just figured those were more mesoscale boundaries from convection. Not a synoptic thermal boundary.

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 27-May-21 02:33 PM

The synoptics dictate the alignment and movement of it, and it's anchored to the triple point, which is where it's more than just an ordinary boundary that lacks those influences.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 02:33 PM

just like yesterday, sometimes there are little boundaries that make up the overall boundary. it's not always 1 big dry line / cold front, the warm front in particular is VERY gradual

one of the best part of warm front chasing is that you get a gradual front thats often 50-150 miles wide. large area of vorticity, but usually not super focused. so you tend to only get really good convergence along intersections / outflows

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 02:45 PM

Everything to the east looks like a giant mess now

Sitting in Seiling hoping something else fires up west

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 02:46 PM

those 2 cells N of OKC gonna be HP grinders. i would go west and north to try and catch the 2nd wave

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 02:47 PM

we’re on the SW target, debating surging north to try and get on that. we just can’t decide

might set our sights on the El Reno area and go from there

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-May-21 02:50 PM

i like the area just W of OKC and to the NW. still great cape. outflow for the kingfisher storm will be huge. big outflow going on

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 02:51 PM

we’re an hour and some change to El Reno

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 03:01 PM

The stuff north of OKC is a hot mess express. I waited things out in kingfisher and am going to head west again

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 03:12 PM

Heavy flooding in downtown kingfisher. Don’t go west on 3

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 03:20 PM

I'm headed back west to El Reno

1

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-May-21 03:43 PM

staying pretty at clayton

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

staying pretty at clayton

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-May-21 03:47 PM

You gonna be In SW OK?

Or I should say are you in Southwest Oklahoma I do not know where Clayton is

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-May-21 03:48 PM

im camped there

clayton ok

Im currently at off of I40

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

im camped there

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 27-May-21 03:54 PM

I think you mean Clinton. Clayton is in SE OK lol and you are camping out in southwest Oklahoma.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-May-21 03:54 PM

You are correct

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 03:56 PM

Hahaha I was gonna say Clayton maybe is the WORST chase terrain in North America

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-May-21 03:59 PM

lol

Ok on the move into tx.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 04:02 PM

In Clinton as well

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

Ok on the move into tx.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 04:02 PM

Going to Wichita Falls area I assume.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 04:02 PM

we’re in Chickasha heading west. See you gents under the first wall cloud!

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-May-21 04:03 PM

lol

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 27-May-21 04:07 PM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) you staying at Sardis Lake?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-May-21 04:07 PM

No

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 27-May-21 04:08 PM

Gotcha, maybe there’s two Clayton, OKs then

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-May-21 04:14 PM

@Norman Smith (Racine, OH) whhere u at?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

@Norman Smith (Racine, OH) whhere u at?

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-May-21 04:19 PM

Going to Altus, OK

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 04:27 PM

That seems too far south for tornadoes.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 04:27 PM

Initiation SE of Amarillo

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 27-May-21 04:28 PM

Initiation to my West

Hoping one of those cells by topeka produces something brief

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 04:43 PM

Might be something firing up NW of me or SW of Seiling

Could be behind the outflow from the earlier stuff, though.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 04:48 PM

Might get a spinup by Cashion

Winds in Yukon and Kingfisher are out of the east

beard (fort worth) 27-May-21 04:49 PM

It's cut off from the south and east it won't tor

beard (fort worth) 27-May-21 04:57 PM

There's also an OFB being pushed out. OK is dead.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 05:38 PM

I’m smelling a bust

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-May-21 05:42 PM

Hard to bust a 5% tor

1

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-May-21 05:51 PM

Patience lads

4

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 06:05 PM

Got suckered after the development near Seiling, in Watonga now it's all outflow dominant junk.

If I wanted to chase storms like this I'd just stay regional, lol

Kyle Sikes (Houston, TX) 27-May-21 06:17 PM

Struggling but new CI attempt Northwest of Childress, Texas.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 06:47 PM

Storm teased me by doing a phony hook thing on radar for a few scans.

Enough to get me to drive through the forward flank precip to get a view of the base...surprise! It looks like crap.

2

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 06:49 PM

I’m headed home. Outflow dominant mess headed for the metro. I’ll let someone else have it

2

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 07:03 PM

Well at least I'm currently experiencing a thunderstorm. Back home it's apparently in the low 40s right now.

...when it's almost June.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-May-21 07:05 PM

North Dakota had freeze warnings last night and nearly the whole state has freeze warnings tonight

(edited)

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 07:44 PM

that cell near Memphis is holding its own

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 07:55 PM

Warned cell back near Weatherford but figure it will be gulping rain cooled air

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-May-21 08:00 PM

Uh oh

beard (fort worth) 27-May-21 08:22 PM

Metzger killed it.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 08:36 PM

Yep. Sorry

It’s an accurate representation of how I feel about my life

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 08:41 PM

You mean to tell me people busted yesterday and today in terms of not seeing anything but dying storms?

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 08:43 PM

Shockingly

Yes

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 08:44 PM

I was going to go down there after the chase in OKC, but decided if I want to chase tomorrow, I’ll make the 6 hour drive.

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 08:56 PM

Lol…well I was wrong today

Oh well on to tomorrow

beard (fort worth) 27-May-21 09:00 PM

I even screenshoted it just to fuck with ya lol

7

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 27-May-21 09:17 PM

Quanah storm is throwing big hail down

Half dollar with some bigger stones thrown in

Rapidly intensifying

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 09:25 PM

Media reported Tennis Ball

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 27-May-21 09:29 PM

storms forming along the outflow

beard (fort worth)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Brad Arnold (Hunsville, AL) 27-May-21 11:18 PM

I think it’s best if we let that message die lol

1

The hrrr looks good tomorrow. 3k says go home

beard (fort worth) 28-May-21 12:12 AM

That's a long ass drive home just to question yourself every mile.

beard (fort worth)

That's a long ass drive home just to question yourself every mile.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 28-May-21 12:14 AM

Never stop chasing

that includes when everything tells you to stop

beard (fort worth) 28-May-21 12:14 AM

When you do it for a living and the signs and your gut tell you to go sleep in your own bed it's a different story.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 28-May-21 12:15 AM

Another reason why i skipped SW texas. Wanted to sleep in my own bed tonight

and I was only on the road 2 days.

Kyle Sikes (Houston, TX) 28-May-21 01:44 AM

Had a blast today! Got on the Turkey, Texas supercell for a bit before it died and had some beautiful scenes. I was moving in for a time lapse and then got stuck in the mud. Luckily, there were a few storm chasers including Daniel Shaw that pulled me out. Even on days were things go wrong there is beauty to be seen!

3

Can't wait to edit some of these too. Should be very beautiful with such vibrant colors.

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 28-May-21 01:52 AM

I love the second to last shot

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas)

I love the second to last shot

Kyle Sikes (Houston, TX) 28-May-21 02:23 AM

Thanks!

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-May-21 10:11 AM

Man that cap just wouldn't let go. until the forcing came the OFB and front. Both had to force the sucker open and boom!

Least I got pretty sunset. Made the wife happy.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-May-21 10:59 PM

@Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) and I got a definite "something" yesterday in IL. Phoned it in. At the least it was a close range scud bomb intercept. It was only like 1:30pm, we were like: Man, this day is only just beginning... If we only knew... Oh well.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 28-May-21 11:01 PM

Yum, belated steak dinner for our 2 successful chases

3

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 29-May-21 01:11 PM

That does look good

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 30-May-21 12:33 PM

I love steak but I'm more impressed by "2 successful chases"