Stormtrack - 06-07-21_mn_nd

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Jun-21 05:00 PM

High CAPE powder keg. Warm front. Hoping for supercell tornados, great structure, and post game lightning show and sprites.

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 07-Jun-21 02:06 AM

Late night thoughts

Be very wary of model dewpoints because they tend to way overestimate in the northern plains. Still, solid low-level veering despite weak flow all the way up. If any supercell can actually develop before getting shut off into a multi-cell mess, especially if it can get going along the sfc warm front, tornado seems feasible

But yea I can't imagine 70s intruding into our area with that cutoff over the southern plains and drought over the northern plains

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 09:40 AM

CAPE is way down and offset east into MN today. Both CAMs still have storms forming, but they are very late, not as strong as they were showing yesterday.

Well, hopefully I get something. Heading to Jamestown ND, staging there at a McDonalds.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 01:28 PM

Dews are matching up so far with the latest HRRR run.

HRRR not wanting to initiate the ND warm front until after dark now. Not a great sign. The CAPE is almost 1500 less than what it was forecasted yesterday. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 02:02 PM

The front appears to be lagging and offset a bit to the east of the 15z RAP run. I may need to shift a bit south into SD. Not sure if that will be good though, as the upper level winds are modeled to be stronger farther north. I plan on waiting another hour before I make the call. Its an hour 40 to Aberdeen SD from here. Thoughts? (edited)

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 07-Jun-21 02:59 PM

Some strong southerly flow within that pool of 65+ dewpoints in southern South Dakota...pretty solid return flow

north of Aberdeen seems like a solid play (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jun-21 03:27 PM

Arkansas.

Today was Arkansas’s day.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 07-Jun-21 03:29 PM

Good ole' MCV

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jun-21 03:30 PM

Never fails

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 03:47 PM

As far as I can figure, the dews up here are still being modeled well by the RAP

James T. (NW OH) 07-Jun-21 03:48 PM

Bump up those kinematics and we got something

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 03:52 PM

The low level shear is good enough to get er done. We just need to break the cap before the surface cools too much

whereish is that James?

James T. (NW OH) 07-Jun-21 03:52 PM

First one is E of the Bloomington forest

Second one is by terre haute

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 07-Jun-21 03:53 PM

Lets move this to #06-08-21_mt_nd

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 03:55 PM

Oh, you had me excited James, lol

The hodos here in ND seem god enough. Just gotta break the cap before dark!

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 04:45 PM

Thinking I will head to Ellendale ND, bout an hour south of Jamestown. Going to check the models and obs one more time.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 05:11 PM

Dropping south to Ellendale, looks like there will be a max in LLLR just south of the border. If storms go, that is where it will be. Hopefully they defy the models and fire a bit earlier. The 60 dews finally made it to the border. Hopefully the upper 60s advect north in the next couple hours. That will make or break it I think.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 08-Jun-21 02:36 PM

Looks like some serious damage from CO

Badass landspout, if it was a landspout

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)

Looks like some serious damage from CO

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 09-Jun-21 09:11 PM

I went by it shortly afterwards.

4

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jun-21 11:11 PM

Oh wow!