Guild icon
Stormtrack
EVENT ARCHIVE / 06-08-21_mt_nd
Avatar
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 07-Jun-21 12:06 PM
This day I think has a high ceiling. Tons of shear
Avatar
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 01:18 PM
I see that now. I will be there. I will regret being there the next day as I drive all the way back to IN, but I will be there!
Avatar Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)
I see that now. I will be there. I will regret being there the next day as I drive all the way back to IN, but I will be there!
Avatar
Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jun-21 01:19 PM
Thursday looks substantial too. You can’t make it out for that day too?
Avatar
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 01:22 PM
I literally have to be back in IN working on Thursday. I got the tail end of the plains and the very start of the NW flow pattern. Maybe next year I will chase just a long weekend end of May, then take a few weeks off, then chase for 8-10 days upper midwest. My home turf, cheaper, safer, less chaser convergence.
Avatar
Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jun-21 01:27 PM
Yeah
Avatar
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 07-Jun-21 01:27 PM
Boo upper midwest flow, give me Illinois NW flow
Avatar
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jun-21 01:32 PM
RAP is forecasting 5000 CAPE for central ND at noon tomorrow. wow! We will see. Tomorrow is going to be wild! (edited)
Avatar
Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 08-Jun-21 09:22 AM
SPC adds 2% in the Mid South. Given modest flow aloft turning with height, I agree. Might even be desperate enough to chase it. Morning rain should deposit a boundary with which to work. Cooking boundary under modest flow. Hmmm
Avatar
Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 08-Jun-21 09:27 AM
I'll be through that area later today, timing being dependent on how quickly my trailer gets loaded this afternoon. As much as I don't want to be near anything in the big rig, I still kinda want that feather in my cap to see one from a big rig.
Avatar
Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 08-Jun-21 09:34 AM
Visibility from a rig is surely better than from a car, especially in the South. Can't fight the tornado bug. Just stop in time and enjoy the show!
Avatar
Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 08-Jun-21 09:44 AM
I mean it wouldn't be the first time I've seen a tornado in Kentucky or Tennessee. Although I wouldn't mind that pulling back west so I can cross Arkansas off my list.
Avatar
Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 08-Jun-21 09:49 AM
Plus it’s easier to see in the Delta region of Arkansas.
Avatar
Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jun-21 12:16 PM
Interesting day today.
Image attachment
Image attachment
Avatar
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 12:41 PM
Big cape holy crap
Avatar
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Jun-21 01:15 PM
Likely going chasing in MT for the first time today
May have gotten a sprite yesterday (read today) late
Avatar
Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 08-Jun-21 02:05 PM
What y’all thinking now
Avatar
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Jun-21 02:18 PM
I am trying to decide if I head west to MT for the best parameters, but then really screw myself for the drive tomorrow, or if I hang in ND and chase the convection down in Central ND, hoping it becomes surface based later. HRRR really wants initiation to be very far west into MT, I need to be back in IN Thursday Morning, so tomorrow is going to be a long drive. Any thoughts?
Avatar
Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 08-Jun-21 02:20 PM
Is it not surface based at the moment? Haven’t looked at any soundings.
Avatar
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Jun-21 02:22 PM
Its raining cats and dogs in central ND
I am dubious that there will be initiaiton again, so shortly after the current complex moves on
HRRR was wrong about initiation yesterday, so maybe we get initiation farther east than it predicts today as well.
The best ingredients by far are in W ND, just not sure about initiation
Alright, I just have to hit the road. I am going to bet the HRRR is wrong again, and that we get initiation off the tip of the 8+ LLLR plume in W ND. That is where the RAP is bullseyeing the best parameters. Hopefully we get a rogue prefrontal cell. If not, I can hedge my best by heading back east, shortening my drive home and getting some more lightning shots of the convection over central ND. I cannot really afford to go farther west than Glendive MT, as the drive home would be just too long. LLLR will be key to initiation today, just as yesterday. Although there are spots of slightly more elevated terrain near the badlands in ND so who knows. @Jonathan DeGraw (IN) please take a look at the LLLR plume. (edited)
Avatar
Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 08-Jun-21 02:31 PM
I think the Glendive area is a good shot.
Avatar
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Jun-21 05:55 PM
wind is howling here in Dickinson. lllr not looking as sharp as b4. will keep heading west with hopes and prayers.
Avatar
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 08:10 PM
well that changed for Dixie. https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/R3yA2kibrRh0Pwl8VLOoEJa79xrgGivQY0TESNPWmoI/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/E3YAs07VIAEbjrA.jpg
Embedded image
🍆 3
Exported 27 message(s)