Stormtrack - 06-10-2021_mt_nd_sd

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 11:13 AM

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jun-21 11:15 AM

I may be chasing this. Waiting on partner confirmation.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 11:15 AM

Alright!

That’s looking classic setup. Well screams it.

Just by looking at it. lol

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 11:31 AM

Shear 200-300, cape at 2000, ejecting with negative tilt, dews in 60’s and numerous isolated cells. What don’t you like?

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 08-Jun-21 11:35 AM

Its one of those chases that if you get a chance to chase, do it. Really good looking setup for SW ND. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 11:40 AM

Yeah makes me want to drive 1200 miles. Lol

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jun-21 11:42 AM

Yeah I’ve been saying this is setting up to be a classic setup.

About as close to a chasers dream as you can get.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 11:43 AM

I just got a chance to look at it. Just so busy, family and catching up with chores.

It’s going to be all nighter too.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jun-21 11:48 AM

Oooof

Why do you have to pull an all nighter?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 11:50 AM

Starts late

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jun-21 11:57 AM

Yes cody I remember you talking about this.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jun-21 12:10 PM

I’d go to Mitchell on Wednesday to chase that Thursday, but I got work Wednesday which I can’t miss, thus not going to make the 15 hour drive Thursday. (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 08-Jun-21 02:34 PM

I'm a bit iffy with the T-Td spreads. Plus, it feels like the NAM is exaggerating the low-level helicity unless it resolves low-level jets.

But it does look like a warm front and triple point setting up there.

I'm also inexperienced with severe weather forecasting. I'm tempted to make the 7-hr drive out there because it looks like it could be an exciting day there.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jun-21 03:12 PM

looking at friday as a potential sneaker day in the MO valley. MCS likely entering the area by noon. high capes. lots of surface vorticity.

NAM is surpressing alot of the cape and capping the entire frontal region due to the MCS, however it isnt handling the outflows and rebound very well

NAM trying to be a CAM and find out where to put the giant MCS / supercells that will be dragging east

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 08-Jun-21 03:17 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) what do you mean by the MO valley?

The missouri river valley in MO?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jun-21 03:20 PM

MO valley is basically sioux city to omaha to KC east and west about 150 miles

everything from des moines to the flint hills, and from central SD to the KC area. (middle mo valley)

the term is used alot for hydrology and we use it here in omaha a ton, there is a basketball conference for it

the upper mo valley is pierre to yellowstone, south mo is everythign south and east of KC through above the ozarks

lets play spot the derecho

3

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 08-Jun-21 03:26 PM

Ah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jun-21 03:27 PM

euro has isolated supers after the MCS passes on friday in the mo valley. infact it drops one right ontop of omaha around 9pm. perfection

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jun-21 03:41 PM

https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2021060812_081_38.82--98.5.png

don't sleep on KS to MN friday

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 08-Jun-21 06:25 PM

18Z NAM run along the warm front near Bismark Thursday night. https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2021060818_057_46.53--102.03.png

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jun-21 06:49 PM

RAP and NAM are starting to make me really like this event even more…

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 08-Jun-21 07:12 PM

I dunno. Those 850 - 700 mb lapse rates and high critical angle have me questioning that PDS TOR haz type.

1

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jun-21 07:41 PM

That’s true, but there are dozens of other similar soundings (not necessarily PDS) in the area.

Here are just a few.

3

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 08-Jun-21 08:17 PM

iffy on supercell maintenance

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jun-21 10:21 PM

Those are some hella high cape skewts

Thermos look good. Lift is good. Even a little shear will be plenty. How does motion vs frontal position look?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jun-21 10:47 PM

I could see this risk expanding south some

You're looking at forcing all the way down to CO/NB border

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jun-21 12:09 AM

Western Nebraska a play tomorrow?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 12:10 AM

the entire front range looks good next 2 days

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jun-21 12:12 AM

The SPC was saying the Capping in NE would hold out longer.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 12:36 AM

It holds until slightly after 00z

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jun-21 12:52 AM

What do y’all think of 03z RAP?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 01:06 AM

cap will break if there is enough forcing, not worried thursday. but the forcing may be late

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jun-21 01:45 AM

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jun-21 01:53 AM

NAM is also strong on the event still, but ejects the SFC LOW faster and has better flow.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jun-21 02:16 AM

@Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) who gets better service up there in North Dakota? AT&T or Verizon?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jun-21 10:09 AM

Good question

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 10:20 AM

Looks like the SPC took the outflow will ruin the warm sector bait for Friday. Will they never learn?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Looks like the SPC took the outflow will ruin the warm sector bait for Friday. Will they never learn?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 10:30 AM

Sneak 5% day again when we get to day 1. Start as 2% up to 5% once the OFB continues.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 10:33 AM

The cams are being super fast on the MCs. But storm motions should be pretty slow. Rap and nam both have the front washing out over neb/ia

Then we end up with a 4k cape 75 td zone getting a fresh outflow and mcs on nam and rap

Reminds me of 6/16/17 a bit. Handful of tors that day and SPC didn't want to buy it (edited)

For reference:. Day 3 vs day 1 final

They never went above 2% tor and we got 12 tors out if it

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 10:44 AM

Yeah, I expect them to wait until more confidence builds on what happens to the OFB. Both Wichita, Norman, etc all talk about low confidence in whether the OFB will wash or, or be a focal point

KC

If morning storms along the front can maintain into the area along the front, or the cap is able to locally weaken during the afternoon, the potential for transient robust convection would be expected.

(edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

@Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) who gets better service up there in North Dakota? AT&T or Verizon?

Holden(MN) 09-Jun-21 11:36 AM

Depends on where you're chasing. MT/ND border both of my phones were a paperweight. Verizon seemed slightly better though

1

Holden(MN)

Depends on where you're chasing. MT/ND border both of my phones were a paperweight. Verizon seemed slightly better though

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jun-21 11:41 AM

Okay, thank you!

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 11:42 AM

Yeah, from what I saw, Verizon was doing much better than ATT

2

Holden(MN) 09-Jun-21 11:42 AM

I didn't have any problems whatsoever until I started hanging out in the canyon stuff

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 11:43 AM

Daniel Shaw had to actually flip over to Verizon to get his stream to not buffer in Montana.

2

Holden(MN) 09-Jun-21 11:43 AM

West of Theodore Roosevelt national park was when it got bad

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Looks like the SPC took the outflow will ruin the warm sector bait for Friday. Will they never learn?

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 09-Jun-21 12:01 PM

Maybe because of the high DCAPE and low downdraft parcel temps?

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 09-Jun-21 12:04 PM

I will say AT&T is fantastic out in the plains

Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

I will say AT&T is fantastic out in the plains

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 09-Jun-21 12:28 PM

That's Southern Plains. They've only recently begun to gain a presence in the northern plains. Verizon has the advantage further north because that was the old Alltell footprint from that acquisition. There was even once a time not that many years ago where Sprint had more towers in Nebraska than AT&T did.

2

5

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 09-Jun-21 01:16 PM

Opinions on the lingering warm front in ND tomorrow? I'm hoping to play that for some supers, but models want to hang the majority of the forcing back in the Rockies.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 09-Jun-21 01:28 PM

Also, models want to call for more shallow low-level lapse rates in ND.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 02:25 PM

if the front is as progressive as nam3km has it then there will be plenty of forcing to sustain an extended severe wind event overnight thursday into friday (so there should be at least a slight for the next morning, you'd think with 2-3k residual cape feeding a fast moving MCS/MCV) on the other hand if the front doesn't load up the cold behind the squall and moves slower, as the RAP and normal NAM predict, then you should have plenty of time for rebound in the warm sector and you'll get some messy HP's that transition to a severe wind event, which should also justify a slight. the only reason i see to erase that risk for wind/hail on friday is the thought that the front will simply wash out if the low gets too far north, which could be an issue but neither of the previous scenarios fit with taht

looking at the cams, that is what the ARW is predicting, with a full cap across nebraska and the MCS moving due east. but thats 1 model so we'll see how it goes.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

looking at the cams, that is what the ARW is predicting, with a full cap across nebraska and the MCS moving due east. but thats 1 model so we'll see how it goes.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 02:35 PM

Yeah, but what’s everyone’s favorite FV3 show?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Yeah, but what’s everyone’s favorite FV3 show?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 02:40 PM

because you asked nicely. front stalls in KS, gets a few supercells before transition to MCS: https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwfv3/2021060912/057/refcmp_uh001h.us_c.png

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 02:41 PM

See, lock it in.

FV3 chasing!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 02:45 PM

how is fv3 an operational product? it's so redic

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 09-Jun-21 02:45 PM

FV3 bad lol

Almost to the point of not being funny

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 02:53 PM

I still would like to see the skill score of the new GFS

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 09-Jun-21 05:38 PM

good when used properly

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND)

good when used properly

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 05:50 PM

I only use GFS for crazy snowfall maps

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jun-21 06:06 PM

I think there’s enough CAPE

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 09-Jun-21 07:29 PM

Its all fun and games until you get to the rapid upscale growth

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 09-Jun-21 09:06 PM

Yeah I think there's too much damn cape. One of the reasons I'm worried tomorrow is going to bust

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 09:06 PM

Friday morning qlcs: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021060918_GFS_045_41.27,-95.93_severe_ml.png

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 09-Jun-21 09:09 PM

I finished my project in Denver metro early, so I am free to chase tomorrow. Guess I need to go forecast wrong a bunch

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 09:11 PM

Very impressive EHI overnight. This screams upscale wind event (edited)

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 09-Jun-21 09:12 PM

That might be fun but not what I'm looking for

Seems like it will be a significant severe day just not sure about tornadoes

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 09:13 PM

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021060918_NAM_045_40.54,-96.3_severe_ml.png

Friday morning in SE neb.

Angles are all right for an early morning hail party. Tors possible on the tail

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 09-Jun-21 09:15 PM

Easterly upper levels

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 09:16 PM

You ever seen a legit tornado move southwest for a good 30 mins on the ground? Easterlies man

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 09-Jun-21 09:35 PM

Jarrell

8

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 09-Jun-21 09:40 PM

That was my first thought. XD

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-21 09:44 PM

High cape, borderline shear. Frontal boundary. Outflows. Friday is a low probability big reward day

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jun-21 10:45 PM

Tail end charlie day

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

High cape, borderline shear. Frontal boundary. Outflows. Friday is a low probability big reward day

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 10-Jun-21 10:25 AM

Yep, still there as well.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 10:29 AM

SPC moved their ENH for wind east all the way to may area which aligns with my forecast. However they now believe that the subsidence behind the squall will kill cape, which makes more sense now (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 11:22 AM

Busy today, but free tomorrow. I'll be chasing the derecho if it makes it here in the morning

Low to mid 70s TDs already in place. Unless mixing dries out the warm sector tonight is gonna be huge cape until like 6am

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 10-Jun-21 11:45 AM

Yeah I'm sitting today out I think. Gonna make a drive for home instead. I tihnk there'll be a tornado up in MT/ND near the border, but I'm not motivated enough to go up there

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 11:53 AM

Today you are gotta ride far north or hope for tail end charley on the nose down in the sandhills

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 10-Jun-21 12:00 PM

the RAP, HRRR, NAM all show pretty good capping and the 700mb winds don't crank now according to RAP and HRRR

at least not till after 3z

i don't have a desire to hang out till 3z then try and drive home or find a hotel

I think the only real play today is warm front in ND/MT and I'm still not very optimistic on that because flow is perpendicular to wf not parallel so it seems storms will just go over the WF

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 10-Jun-21 12:03 PM

I've been thinking the same thing. I really wanted to play the warm front, but it's been a big gamble because of the flow.

I'm probably going to stay home for this myself. Money's too tight for me right now to go out that far west, and there's just too much uncertainty with the tor setup. If money wasn't as tight, I'd go out there for the supercells and derecho.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 10-Jun-21 12:18 PM

I hope something happens closer to home later on in the year, but not too confident with how the models are looking in the long-term.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 10-Jun-21 12:25 PM

Late June still looks better. get a tropical system to break the ridge.

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 10-Jun-21 12:30 PM

Yeah if I lived in MN I'd prob go out, but yeah it's still a long ways if you're broke. There will be something better later this season I am sure of it

always a day or two of ring of fire around the ridge or something

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK)

Yeah if I lived in MN I'd prob go out, but yeah it's still a long ways if you're broke. There will be something better later this season I am sure of it

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 10-Jun-21 12:36 PM

Just go hail core punch tomorrow Ben, in KS.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 10-Jun-21 12:36 PM

At least this setup did motivate me to pick up a tire pump and tire gauge for my car.

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 10-Jun-21 12:36 PM

im in a rental, i try not to ruin those

I always have a tire gauge, pump, tire iron, bottle jack, jumper cables, recovery strap and tow rope, stall mates, a roll of TP, rain x, window cleaner and a roll of paper towel with me plus extra brake, transmission and radiator fluid and coolant

and a set of tools

oh and bug spray and sunblock

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 10-Jun-21 12:38 PM

I forgot about jumper cables.

All of that is good. Might go out again and pick up what I can.

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 10-Jun-21 12:40 PM

yeah just make a list. buy em eventually. get a hammer/seatbelt cutter tool too

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 10-Jun-21 12:44 PM

I have a folding knife that has a seat belt cutter and a spike for breaking windows. And my chase vehicle has a winch. Only thing I'm really lacking is a snatch block for the trickier recoveries that are at odd angles. Doing a lot of off roading like I do has given me a good deal of experience with recoveries and field repairs. Given three car batteries, and a means to recharge them after laying down a few beads, I can even do some basic stick welding in a pinch

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 10-Jun-21 01:02 PM

I tried to find weather radios yesterday as well. Surprised I couldn't find any in Minneapolis. Went to four stores as well.

Most of them said that they sell them online.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 10-Jun-21 01:26 PM

And now with the SPC's latest update, I might want to target east-central SD for some shelf clouds. It's only four and a half hours away. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 02:30 PM

Upgrades likely needed for Friday they say. Yup. Just got new roof and siding. Feels like a wind and hail event tonight into tomorrow. Joy.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jun-21 02:58 PM

Was wondering about Friday?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 03:22 PM

Might want to split the days up, glen

Strong subsidence in the Nebraska panhandle. No storms there for a while. But NE WY is convergence zone and so is the Colorado high plains

Massive convergence on the Mt ND border

Indexes in MT are Too high. Observed SCP of 19. Gonna cap bust until late?

Mike Kavulich (Boulder, CO) 10-Jun-21 03:37 PM

It seems like the models are all under-forecasting dewpoints in W Nebraska, aside from the nested NAM which breaks the cap. Debating making the drive up from Boulder soon.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jun-21 05:06 PM

k i did

Chris M. (Houston TX) 10-Jun-21 06:21 PM

Take a look at the special sounding from Lincoln 18Z. It is shrinking.

GOES loop suggests shear vectors are really optimized in S/CT NE

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 06:27 PM

Forcing is quite a bit later than. Forecast. Real tornado threat may develop but it wi be late late

Chris M. (Houston TX) 10-Jun-21 06:53 PM

Interesting little bloop in NE CO

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 07:03 PM

NE co was under some solid convergence. Not surprised if the cap broke

Chris M. (Houston TX) 10-Jun-21 07:09 PM

Struggling so not quite

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 10-Jun-21 07:36 PM

Every model I looked at this morning had questionable breaking of cap in Colorado Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. One of the reasons why I left. I'm in the Oklahoma panhandle and it sounds like maybe I made a correct decision

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Jun-21 07:59 PM

Yeah the window for surface based was very small and limtmited duration

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jun-21 08:20 PM

@James T. (NW OH) and @Norman Smith (Racine, OH) two funnel cloud reports for you guys? You on it?

James T. (NW OH) 10-Jun-21 08:20 PM

Nah, didn’t feel like chasing garden variety storms

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jun-21 08:20 PM

lol ok man.

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Yeah the window for surface based was very small and limtmited duration

Chris M. (Houston TX) 10-Jun-21 09:13 PM

If I'm not out burning cash, I'm a sucker for watching the underdog target.