Stormtrack - 06-17-2021_ne_ia_mo

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Jun-21 09:43 PM

So it begins

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Jun-21 09:52 PM

Thank you sir

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 15-Jun-21 10:30 PM

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Jun-21 11:40 PM

this wil either be an epic day or a an epic bust. choose your path

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Jun-21 12:40 AM

Screw it go out and have fun any ways.

It's not all going to capped.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 12:40 AM

MOAR: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021061603_RAP_044_41.37,-95.38_severe_ml.png

6500 SBCAPE no cap 300 0-3

these are pilger level indexes. you chase this. if you bust at least you tried

i know becuase... i'm the guy who forecasted pilger.

3

ick that wasn't it

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 16-Jun-21 03:05 AM

I’m looking deeper and finding something interesting. Some nice sounding in Nebraska and Iowa.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 16-Jun-21 04:00 AM

HRRR uptrended.

Wow.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 16-Jun-21 04:53 AM

All of the CAMs are trending to the same thing now.

If that cap breaks…

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 08:46 AM

Forecast high in Omaha is 107 tomorrow. Gross. We drive north.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-Jun-21 11:40 AM

@Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ can we get a 6-18-21 chat?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 11:46 AM

Can anyone guess where this sounding is forecast? (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 16-Jun-21 12:26 PM

Don't think I've seen this hazard type before (Central IA): https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam4km_2021061612_038_41.93--92.58.png

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 12:30 PM

Gonna be a warm chase

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-Jun-21 12:38 PM

Heat of the Excessive

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 12:48 PM

hopeful we'll see some PDS, not PDS heat

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 16-Jun-21 12:50 PM

Some ol boys field just north of Pilger, I’d say

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 12:50 PM

yup. pretty similar sounding

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 01:46 PM

RAP is still holding steady that NE Neb into NW IA gonna be a wedge zone. NAM isn't far off of RAP. the CAMS are not showing much convection despite showing zero cap /w insane cape and good forcing

this could be the scenario were cape is too high for cams to really convect anything. meanwhile RAP is throwing up soundings /w 8200 cape

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 16-Jun-21 01:55 PM

To me, the models seem to point at central to NE Iowa as the tornado hot spot tomorrow.

5

Willard (Madrid, IA) 16-Jun-21 02:40 PM

I would agree. Central into North Central and Northeast Iowa will be the place to be for those initial supercells and tornado possibilities based on the current models. Love these chase days were all I have to do is back out of my garage and I’m in my target area. Will be interesting to see how this all evolves.

Cody H(Manchester Iowa) 16-Jun-21 03:16 PM

Couldn’t agree more ^

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 03:44 PM

some of the soundings coming out showing....possible southwest or westward moving supercells behind the front (which will be more moist than infront of it???)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 03:56 PM

nam now forecasting a monster MCS in iowa tonight. westernly outflows could slow down the surface low / front and setup some interesting areas

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 16-Jun-21 04:05 PM

Deciding not to chase this one and just watch the lightning show and MCS From home (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 04:42 PM

New nam is in. Chasing isolated in Nebraska I guess

4

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 16-Jun-21 04:53 PM

Both the 18Z HRRR and NAM want to fire some midday storms along the MN/IA border. I don't know how those are going to affect the evening storms. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 04:56 PM

tomorrow is getting really complicated and those isolated supers along the front are going to be really hard to pinpoint

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 16-Jun-21 04:56 PM

Oh yeah.

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 16-Jun-21 05:43 PM

my current rough plan is to be in the Waterloo area by 3PM (aka leave home by 11AM)

I'll reevaluate in the morning

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 05:45 PM

I wish the people on central and east targets luck on your mcs. I wish for my own luck on the cap breaking with 8kcape

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 16-Jun-21 05:46 PM

i'm choosing the east target based on proximity alone

i'd settle for an august 10 repeat

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 16-Jun-21 06:05 PM

I have no interest in driving that far for derechos.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Jun-21 06:31 PM

New RAP has front stalled and all of Omaha metro in the warm sector

Toxic don't care. Hits convective temp

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 16-Jun-21 06:58 PM

Another good one.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 16-Jun-21 09:35 PM

Hrrr trying to get things going now.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Jun-21 12:16 AM

2 nice outflow waves from the MCS heading into nebraska now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Jun-21 12:36 AM

https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2021061703_018_42.59--96.15.png

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 17-Jun-21 12:37 AM

Look at that SRH hotspot…over Pilger and Wayne.

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 17-Jun-21 02:05 AM

D1 ENH

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 17-Jun-21 02:05 AM

Hope the SPC website updates soon.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 17-Jun-21 02:08 AM

5% Tor 30 % SIGWIND 30% SIGHAIL

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 17-Jun-21 02:08 AM

Here we go boys.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL)

5% Tor 30 % SIGWIND 30% SIGHAIL

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 17-Jun-21 02:08 AM

Sounds about right.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 17-Jun-21 02:08 AM

There will be tor probs upgraded because I won’t be there lol.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 17-Jun-21 02:08 AM

Excited to chase tomorrow. Time to get some sleep now.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 17-Jun-21 02:08 AM

Calling it now

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 17-Jun-21 02:09 AM

I hope I can get my car plates sorted out before all of this fires tomorrow.

Or I can chance it and chase on expired temp tags. XD

James T. (NW OH) 17-Jun-21 03:01 AM

https://twitter.com/jtmediaoh/status/1405419377206480896?s=21

James T. (@JTMediaOH)

People tryna find a reason to explain why Iowa won’t cap bust like… https://t.co/pGOgkfqooh

Jokes

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Jun-21 10:07 AM

welcome to the cap zone

3

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 17-Jun-21 10:50 AM

I'm bailing on today with the hope of some local chasing tomorrow

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Jun-21 10:51 AM

tomorrow could be intersted. i think we shifted target a little east but we're still on

nam3km has 1 really baller super over storm lake, IA

so much run to run variance going on ugh

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 17-Jun-21 10:56 AM

I'd be out if I was closer but I'm not feeling making the drive with still so much uncertainty (and knowing I have a chance to chase locally tomorrow)

Good luck to those that chase today though. Could be some beast storms today

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 17-Jun-21 11:54 AM

HRRR showing everything to pop very late. Am I missing the afternoon cap break somewhere?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Jun-21 11:58 AM

Cams aren't having it. But the surface is open

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-Jun-21 04:22 PM

CAMS were wrong about June 7th in ND this year.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 17-Jun-21 04:39 PM

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 17-Jun-21 08:43 PM

So even though we pretty much got a blue sky bust I still got to go through Pilger, Wayne, and Wakefield.

So I’m happy

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 17-Jun-21 08:44 PM

Sorry bud it was me. You can blame me.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 17-Jun-21 08:45 PM

lol

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 17-Jun-21 08:47 PM

I'll take

for $1000 Alex

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 17-Jun-21 08:50 PM

104°

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 17-Jun-21 10:50 PM

wamp wamp

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 17-Jun-21 11:03 PM

Unfortunately saw this coming, like several others. But even on tornado busts, amazing photos can be captured. Some of those structure shots are amazing. (edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 17-Jun-21 11:31 PM

We knew the risk/reward of today going in and we are local. Not really mad about today.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 18-Jun-21 12:09 AM

Never saw a cold front with TDs 15 degrees higher behind it than infront before

The 850 mixing today was remarkable. Far exceeded any models

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 18-Jun-21 12:53 AM

I saw some good storms, and I didn't even have to leave the state.

1

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 18-Jun-21 02:51 AM

Well, I don’t feel so bad missing today after all

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 18-Jun-21 11:16 AM

The cap broke after midnight here...

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 18-Jun-21 03:42 PM

Great wonderful.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 19-Jun-21 01:27 AM

Sunday...