Stormtrack - 06-24-2021_ne_ks_ia

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 22-Jun-21 11:44 AM

It is done.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 22-Jun-21 11:47 AM

You got a trailing cold front and a good warm front where the low tracks. Dews are mid 70s along the warm front, and 60s behind a dryline in KS. Likely won’t initiate anything down there due to a strong cap. Still have some capping in southern Nebraska, but the low itself should allow initiation. There is an MCS that morning through the KC area, so maybe there’s a chance the OFB helps kick off storms in KS that day.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 22-Jun-21 11:52 AM

Play the warm front if there are any left over boundaries. If not play the T.P. of course. Hard can it be? @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) @Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) NE bois!

Really if that MCS is strong enough to leave some boundaries that will be nicely done.

Wonder if I should add IA?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

Wonder if I should add IA?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 22-Jun-21 12:11 PM

It’s technically part of the risk.

But it’s also

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Jun-21 12:24 PM

#teamwarmfront assemble

4

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

Wonder if I should add IA?

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 22-Jun-21 12:27 PM

The entire state is in the risk area of course you should lol.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 22-Jun-21 12:34 PM

~~But then Lieowa will strike again~~

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 22-Jun-21 01:16 PM

Our favorite FV3 is a lot farther south with the low.

GFS slightly more east, but still is in line with the NAM

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 22-Jun-21 03:06 PM

12Z run of the NAM 3km is hyping up southern Nebraska.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 22-Jun-21 03:40 PM

Yeah it looks like Nebraska initiation. Things could change per KCMO area MCS of course. However I do believe the afternoon will convect, despite warm mid-levels. They’ll be enough lift and surface convergence. Once the cap is breached, game on! Operation chase outflow boundary. (edited)

2

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 22-Jun-21 04:50 PM

Just pulled this sounding from Southeast Nebraska. This is probably the place to be as of right now.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Just pulled this sounding from Southeast Nebraska. This is probably the place to be as of right now.

James T. (NW OH) 22-Jun-21 04:54 PM

That’s a nasty HP sup there

Also super saturated in the lower levels

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 22-Jun-21 04:55 PM

@Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) what are your thoughts on Thursday. Are you thinking of making the trip north if this keeps trending up?

Yes it is very saturated. That’s southeast Nebraska for ya. It’s got a bit of a warm nose though, If the 700s warm anymore in that area we will be in trouble. (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 22-Jun-21 04:59 PM

That’s also the warm front for you.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 22-Jun-21 05:06 PM

also, system continues with an MCS and outflow into Illinois the next day, which could set some fun boundaries up for Friday in Illinois (edited)

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 22-Jun-21 05:26 PM

looks pretty rough as per NAM 3K

but man that temp advection

like it is very hard on the line of cap bust territory

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 22-Jun-21 05:32 PM

NAM 3K is surging garbage. NAM 12K is a nice WF/OFB setup. Have to be careful when we like the lower resolution version better. Higher resolution version may see small scale issues. See what the ARWs say at 00Z. They typically have performed better this year.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 22-Jun-21 05:44 PM

Another sounding a bit further west.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Jun-21 05:55 PM

Guess where my house is

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 22-Jun-21 05:57 PM

Which model is that?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Jun-21 06:10 PM

Nam3km UH tracks

Finger of god hail mode over Omaha Thursday

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Jun-21 06:20 PM

22z Thursday theta e

Monster hailers on the warm front

Backed winds could mean a tor risk if TDs stay high

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Jun-21 06:37 PM

Right now higher based wind and hail monsters look most likely. But watch for anything that fires on the old outflows

1

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 22-Jun-21 06:45 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Jun-21 08:47 PM

Whenever I see these stationary front setups I just get triggered

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 22-Jun-21 09:01 PM

Rap is not as bullish on this setup. Timing, boundary axis/orientations etc are all weird

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Rap is not as bullish on this setup. Timing, boundary axis/orientations etc are all weird

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 22-Jun-21 10:12 PM

Kills the set up with the morning MCS. Wipes out the warm sector and is slow to recover. Allows storms to convect behind the front.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 02:36 AM

03z rap to the rescue

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Jun-21 07:09 AM

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Jun-21 11:18 AM

12z models have said, screw Nebraska, lol. Keeps it all south and goes linear immediately.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 11:37 AM

Nams relying on cloud cover and subsidence behind the first wave to ruin the warm front play. Not sure I trust a meso forecast until tomorrow morning

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 11:48 AM

Models still showing good cape, shear, dewpoints over Nebraska. Storms will tend to fire in the north side of the best indexes so don't count it out.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Models still showing good cape, shear, dewpoints over Nebraska. Storms will tend to fire in the north side of the best indexes so don't count it out.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Jun-21 12:01 PM

True.

I will say, all models are hinting at this now n

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 12:14 PM

My biggest concern is the subsidence. A really . massive MCs could ruin the convergence zone. Could end up with east and west actikn with no gas in the center where best shear is

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 12:22 PM

15z rap recovers the atmosphere enough that SE Nebraska is playable.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 01:49 PM

Based on frontal position, movement, steady feed of instability. We could.have a training or backbuilding line of supers

Cap looks to break first in N MO, zips back into SC neb, then keeps training east

Ontop of that, there is the risk up in MN appearing

Sref has spoken.

I'd like to see that at 15 not 11. Likely due to lack of coverage

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 23-Jun-21 02:33 PM

Hmm STL, Or Columbia

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 23-Jun-21 02:39 PM

hey all im saying is

https://i.gyazo.com/5b6c37181a06f4422789aad743f190fc.mp4

id take a deviant mover any day

especially that SW moving one

just hoping it isn't nearly as linear that

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 02:45 PM

Southwest movers are great for tors as long as motion is slow. At normal speeds they go cold pool dominant fast

1

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 23-Jun-21 04:16 PM

It'd be lovely to have some Minnesota action tomorrow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Southwest movers are great for tors as long as motion is slow. At normal speeds they go cold pool dominant fast

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 23-Jun-21 04:26 PM

I feel like that's because "normal speed" storms are being pushed by strong cold pool. The slow ones have that magic small theta or theta-e spread between the updraft and downdraft that tornadic supercells love.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 04:27 PM

70 TDs already into Nebraska. 71td at my house

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 04:40 PM

@Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Nam trying to resolve 4 wedges at once

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 04:41 PM

Storm Induced SRH going on here. 18z NAM wants some massive supercells in southern Nebraska tomorrow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 04:44 PM

Lock it in boys

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 04:47 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 05:13 PM

The analog to that sounding is Hallam-Wilber

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 05:13 PM

And the analog to this one is Mulvayne.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 23-Jun-21 05:34 PM

Hallam-Wilber? Is it time for a 2.5-mile-wide wedge already? (edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 05:39 PM

I’ve seen a lot of slow moving wedges as analogs.

I’m seeing Manchester as an analog

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 05:40 PM

It's all about the recovery tomorrow

If the MCS moves out fast well get better recovery

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 05:40 PM

And Aurora too.

Yeah.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 05:40 PM

Slow moving mcs could hold up the warm front and keep it south. Also depends on the low. I saw 999mb?

Big variance in low intensity and speed

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Jun-21 05:41 PM

Agreed. I’m headed up from OKC tomorrow. Will decide in the morning if I head towards St Joseph or if I need to stay farther west to go north. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 05:44 PM

Reed is hyping Salina

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Jun-21 05:45 PM

Closer to the low, which is where I usually like to be.

Plus good options every direction.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Reed is hyping Salina

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 23-Jun-21 06:14 PM

He’s bailed on several setups lately. I think he hits it too hard sometimes

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 06:22 PM

Reed is getting old. So am i

Chasing gets hard when u get near 40

4

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 06:24 PM

I think he might be losing his touch a little bit. He is forgetting some things about weather it seems and his patience is also growing smaller.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

I think he might be losing his touch a little bit. He is forgetting some things about weather it seems and his patience is also growing smaller.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Jun-21 06:39 PM

Personally think he’s running into what I ran into, which is “I don’t want to target the same cell everyone else is on”

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Personally think he’s running into what I ran into, which is “I don’t want to target the same cell everyone else is on”

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 06:40 PM

That might be the case. It could also be because he’s no longer in the dominator so he is subconsciously less aggressive and lazier in his forecasting and lazier when he is out chasing.

I also think he is over analyzing things too.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 07:06 PM

I remember the first time I caught chaser convergence bad in 2014 (thanks to reed). Been avoiding it ever since

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

I remember the first time I caught chaser convergence bad in 2014 (thanks to reed). Been avoiding it ever since

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Jun-21 07:26 PM

I absolutely hate chaser convergence, and used to purposely go to target 2 instead of target 1 in OK to avoid it.

1

Everytime, never got a tornado. Target 1 did a couple times

Now, I still am conscious of it, but the best target is the best target for a reason

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Chasing gets hard when u get near 40

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 23-Jun-21 08:26 PM

And that scares me because I didn't get to chase for much of my younger years. I'm 38 now.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 08:30 PM

18z nam3k wants convection to fire a bit later along the WF in northern KS

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 08:52 PM

Model showdown. To the death!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Model showdown. To the death!

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 08:53 PM

https://tenor.com/view/%EA%B4%91%EC%84%A0%EA%B2%80-star-wars-fighting-gif-15647312

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 08:53 PM

In the red corner we have the challenger, name3km. And in the blue corner we have the champion, HRRR

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jun-21 09:02 PM

70 TDs to the sd border

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 09:34 PM

take a look at HRRR going bullish on this event.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Jun-21 10:53 PM

@Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) do you work tomorrow)

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 23-Jun-21 11:00 PM

Yep

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 12:15 AM

2

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Jun-21 01:38 AM

What I miss?

lol,

Sorry family spending it with my last night with my nephew lets say was unforgettable. (edited)

No the play in the SE NE is a possibility. Again it's a few hrs of play and after that it's a mess or just a bust.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 02:08 AM

https://twitter.com/iembot_spc/status/1407942439722110978?s=21

IEMBot SPC (@iembot_spc)

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Convective Outlook at Jun 24, 6:00z https://t.co/CVoA6oQvEF

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 02:17 AM

Here we go boys. See you tomorrow morning!

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 08:18 AM

Last wave of the MCS clearing out now.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 09:01 AM

Good. We have time for recovery

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 09:13 AM

Looks like a chase day boys. See y’all up there

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 24-Jun-21 09:13 AM

It’ll recover. Southeast Nebraska could destabilize enough to make the WF the target. Otherwise the outflow boundary farther south (KS/MO) should destabilize. Not too interested in the DL this setup. Need the backed winds of the other boundaries. Be safe and good luck to all! (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Jun-21 09:51 AM

Outflow made it to i70. Storms ongoing in ks and tons of debris

Massive stable air over the 5% zone right now and it's already almost 9am

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 24-Jun-21 10:21 AM

Thinking about going to Bowling Green, Missouri

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 10:22 AM

Still clouded over and raining here. Think I'll monitor this one from home today

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 10:28 AM

I’m pretty much following the OFB back north from Salina.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

I’m pretty much following the OFB back north from Salina.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Jun-21 10:56 AM

That could be a solid play today. The 13z HRRR likes that area between Salina and Concordia. (edited)

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 10:58 AM

I don’t want to go to NE KS, so I’m playing the western side of the storms, closer to the low. We’ll see what happens.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 11:06 AM

OFB hasn’t stopped moving south, but I expect KS to clear out.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 11:07 AM

I’m strolling Mass street in Lawrence. Keeping options open

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 11:19 AM

Whatever you do, don’t look at the FV3

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Whatever you do, don’t look at the FV3

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 11:21 AM

Does it say go home? Haha

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo)

Does it say go home? Haha

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 11:24 AM

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 11:25 AM

Oh mylanta

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 11:25 AM

It also pops a structure storm at Goodland KS

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 11:26 AM

Some fast environment recovery ongoing in KS.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 11:27 AM

I’m right where I want to be at this juncture. And I’m only 3 hours from home with the option for beers with friends: I can’t lose

1

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Some fast environment recovery ongoing in KS.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Jun-21 11:27 AM

It would appear that the OFB may be beginning to slow down along or just north of the US 54 corridor in S KS. (edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 11:28 AM

I highly doubt our action is going to be that far south. I’m betting northern KS.

I’m looking at meso

And it seems like that’s what it’s hinting to a bit.

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 24-Jun-21 11:34 AM

I'm going to sit in Concordia (north of Salina) for awhile to keep everything in play

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 11:42 AM

Yeah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Jun-21 11:45 AM

We'll be near Hebron so we can drop south or east if needed

Best odds of initiation I feel will be just north of the indexes as the outflow rebounds North

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 24-Jun-21 12:10 PM

Which model to use today?

HRRR or Nam3k

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 12:13 PM

Rapid clearing in Lawrence. I’m headed west

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 12:22 PM

The beauty of local chasing is you can leave later

1

Especially after an MCS keeps up up till 4 am.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 12:23 PM

Another boundary that’s racing south in Nebraska. A few counties from the KS/NE border.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 24-Jun-21 12:45 PM

Agree with Royce, to watch area north of OFB and at/south of WF. We are heading to Marysville, KS with option to visit Nebraska.

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 24-Jun-21 01:24 PM

yikes

upstream environment

and latest RAP run

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN)

yikes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Jun-21 01:27 PM

Thats very capped

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 24-Jun-21 01:28 PM

I don't think all hope is lost though well the thermo advection is pretty terrible, there is some areas that don't seem to be nearly as affected

so maybe theres some hope elsewhere

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Jun-21 01:31 PM

Today looks killer

Sadly I live quite a bit out from Kansas City

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Jun-21 02:04 PM

5

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:10 PM

Alrighty. St. Joseph, MO or Hiawatha, Kansas?!?

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 02:11 PM

I've got St Joseph covered

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:11 PM

I'm sitting in St. Joseph rn looking at options. Hiawatha got good road networks, but the river might mess people up

Yall think it'll be a tor watch issued?

T Beam (KCMO)

Yall think it'll be a tor watch issued?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 02:13 PM

Could be.

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:13 PM

Temp 78 and dew points 74 in St. Joe.. not too shabby

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 02:13 PM

92/74 at Salina with south wind gusting to 21 knots

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 02:14 PM

I hate dealing with the river. It's cost me a tornado more than once lol

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:14 PM

Idk if Hiawatha could get more clearing than St. Joe

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 02:15 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio)

92/74 at Salina with south wind gusting to 21 knots

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 02:15 PM

It was clearing. Was 84 with clouds. Quickly jumped with clearing.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 02:15 PM

FWIW

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:16 PM

CAPE already approaching 3k for NW MO

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 02:16 PM

As much as I like Salina, I’m headed north to get closer to the boundary which has slowed in Nebraska.

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:17 PM

Where is the boundary at? I really wanna play that

There is a little pocket of 40 kt shear rn just west of Hiawatha, KS

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Jun-21 02:20 PM

Boundary dropped about 30 miles N of the ks border

Cu field filling just south

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:20 PM

Beatrice area?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Jun-21 02:21 PM

And west. We are heading to hebron soon

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 02:21 PM

I wonder if I should play Marysville, KS area or stay around Hiawatha

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 02:22 PM

85/73 at Hebron with south-southeast wind 6 knots with clearing

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

And west. We are heading to hebron soon

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 02:30 PM

Headed to Belleville to keep my option open eastward.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 02:57 PM

We are deciding to set up near fairbury instead. Watching convergence of OFBs in. southern NE. Also, we’ve got towering cumulus and very low LCLs here.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 02:59 PM

Getting very clear here in st Joseph, can feel it heating up

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 03:06 PM

Yes. We have clearing in St. Joe

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 24-Jun-21 03:10 PM

Anyone’s thoughts on North East Missouri???

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO)

Anyone’s thoughts on North East Missouri???

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Jun-21 03:16 PM

Get a boat ready.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 03:19 PM

This will be a big mess by the time it gets to NE Mo. It may be a mess before it even gets to NW Mo

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 03:26 PM

That's why I'm not really making any plans to chase right now. My wife isn't feeling very good right now so I'm kinda just staying around the house and seeing if the storms that pop up are worth venturing out on when they get close.. If it happens it happens. If not, oh well

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 03:40 PM

Hiawatha bound

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 24-Jun-21 03:49 PM

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 03:54 PM

Tornado watch likely

SE Nebraska best. Ks more conditional

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Jun-21 03:57 PM

Hello HP bombs

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 04:19 PM

Some steep updraft angles going on.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 24-Jun-21 04:30 PM

Lunch at the Marysville, KS Subway. Nebraska may go first. However we await the Kansas outflow. With options to visit Nebraska.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 04:48 PM

Tornado watch just issued

Includes here in st Joseph

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 05:03 PM

Omw to Marysville

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 05:06 PM

Yea if my wife wasn't so down I'd be heading that way to join ya. Gonna just stick around locally

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 05:06 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) You know, that 00z HRRR is kinda nailing this so far

T Beam (KCMO) 24-Jun-21 05:06 PM

How are the cops on 36?

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 05:07 PM

I wouldn't push it beyond 5-10 over if you can help it

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 05:08 PM

Cops are out today. I’ve passed a lot of them waiting

And they love Missouri tags

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 05:29 PM

Initiation attempting near Marysville

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 05:32 PM

It's trying although the one near Linn looks healthier

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

It's trying although the one near Linn looks healthier

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 05:37 PM

Yes I’m on the hwy just north of it. There’s a base

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo)

Yes I’m on the hwy just north of it. There’s a base

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 05:38 PM

Broke 30k

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 05:39 PM

Data hole for me. I’m eyeballs only at this point

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 05:39 PM

We are gonna follow the Nebraska stuff east probably.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 05:45 PM

I’m dropping south for this shower.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 05:46 PM

Where are you now?

Nevermind I see your dot

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 05:47 PM

Was marysville .

Broke 40k

So it’s broken the cap.

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 24-Jun-21 05:48 PM

I'm approaching it from Linn right now

lot of low haze looks like

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 05:49 PM

LCL is lo.

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 24-Jun-21 05:50 PM

Yeah that's for sure

This cell seems to be the best option for me right now anyway. Not going to make the nebraska stuff

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 05:51 PM

We are on the Nebraska stuff now.

Just getting into Hebron in about two minutes.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Just getting into Hebron in about two minutes.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 05:52 PM

You have to be back to Lincoln tonight though? Right?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

You have to be back to Lincoln tonight though? Right?

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Jun-21 06:05 PM

Nah. I have until tomorrow.

Why?

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 06:30 PM

Really making an organizational move here west of Herkimer

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 06:32 PM

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 24-Jun-21 06:43 PM

uh

I stand correct my word it mixed the temps to a stupid amount

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 24-Jun-21 06:52 PM

yep

We're gonna all hate our lives if we're not in Kansas right now

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 07:02 PM

I don't know... storms already look to be lining out

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 07:02 PM

https://twitter.com/HighRiskChris/status/1408198546688331777

Chris Riske (@HighRiskChris)

Meso north of Marysville ks #kswx

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 07:02 PM

Well there’s plenty of us here to show you what you missed

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 24-Jun-21 07:08 PM

I'd be worried about that 17C at 700mb on the 22Z Topeka sounding

1

it looks like the storm is struggling

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 07:17 PM

new tornado warning Marshall and Nemaha County KS

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 07:17 PM

Here we go. Holla if you’re here

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 07:19 PM

bounded weak echo region from KOAX Radar on storm north of Beattie KS

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 07:20 PM

It’s shaping up a bit

Visually

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 07:20 PM

tornado on the groundin Iowa (edited)

Adams County, southwest of Des Moines

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 07:22 PM

Roads are mud in ne KS

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Roads are mud in ne KS

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 07:24 PM

It’s blacktop north out of Beattie

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Jun-21 07:25 PM

strikes again...

1

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 24-Jun-21 07:26 PM

10

1

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 07:29 PM

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Jun-21 07:34 PM

Should of went to WI

https://twitter.com/iembot_mpx/status/1408200142189068289?s=20

IEMBot MPX (@iembot_mpx)

At 3:35 PM CDT, 3 E Bruce [Rusk Co, WI] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports TORNADO. ROOF OFF A SHED. SIDING OFF A HOUSE. SEVERAL TREES DAMAGED. A FIRE DEPARTMENT TRAINED SPOTTER SAW THE TORNADO MAKE OCCASIONAL GROUND CONTACT. THREE OTHERS REPORTED SEEING A FUNN... https://t.co/QmNJ35SR9C

1

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 07:35 PM

everything is spinning now on the KS/NE border

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 24-Jun-21 07:44 PM

its struggling with capping badly

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 07:51 PM

Headed south near Manhattan.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Jun-21 07:58 PM

We are bailing for the day. Good luck. We played the western system and are too far out of position for any of the Kansas stuff without reaching darkness.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 08:00 PM

Best I can do is meet it in Onaga. Stuff up north doesn’t look good

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 24-Jun-21 08:02 PM

Yeah the Manhattan storm is struggling but thats the only real play left

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 08:05 PM

I’m just hitting it because it’s on my way home. I can sleep in my own bed tonight

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Jun-21 08:07 PM

options, options.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 08:08 PM

My hotel is also there. So

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 08:09 PM

I was getting blasted with cool air up north. I think the closest it came to TOR was north of Beattie but totally covered by rain. Who knows

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 24-Jun-21 08:10 PM

I was holding my breath like crazy lol

but now I'm like yeah whatever

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo)

I was getting blasted with cool air up north. I think the closest it came to TOR was north of Beattie but totally covered by rain. Who knows

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 08:11 PM

I was under it west if there. It was rotating good but got killed by its own RFD.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 08:11 PM

Same

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 08:11 PM

Rain blasted into it and it continued to reorganize east.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 08:12 PM

Those curtains wrapped in, everyone turned around and it took off.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 09:30 PM

My buddy said he saw a brief stove pipe just north of Seneca KS around 7pm

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Jun-21 09:30 PM

Flash Flood Warning for St. Joseph proper @Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO)

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 24-Jun-21 09:31 PM

Yea weather radio went off lol

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 24-Jun-21 09:42 PM

I feel today was successful. Many of us got in position to give ourselves the best chance to see a tornado and that’s all you can ask for. Chasing felt good today.

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 24-Jun-21 09:49 PM

Yeah that storm almost did it near Beatie. I'm surprised it didnt

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 09:54 PM

It came really close. I thought it was going to do it when I was about to get under it, but it just kept getting cold air into it

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 24-Jun-21 09:55 PM

I ended up getting stuck. Road was fine then turned to mud. Took an hour to get out but i'm glad I didn't miss much. I saw 4-5 others stuck also, but they were all way in the ditch and beyond pushing out

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 09:58 PM

Yeah, there were a few I tested that didn't look great

Was able to make it. Then there was a car stopped in the middle of one that looked terrible

They almost got stuck trying to back out of it

Then went north and same thing. Car started and then stopped, realizing that it was bad

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 24-Jun-21 09:59 PM

It could have been me lol. I was stuck in a valley. Couldn't get up either hill. Called the sheriff's office to ask if they knew a tow that could deal with it, and they had someone walk down and help me push it out. That was nice.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Jun-21 10:39 PM

Tried to play the warm front today but cap broke too fast and everything went upscale like nuts. Had some nice 100 ft AG scuds buts that was it. Got cored for an hour on the way home.

5

3

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 24-Jun-21 10:45 PM

All had to do with 700mb temps. 22z top sounding had 17c at 700. 19z had 13.8. just too hot and struggled with capping

1

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI)

It could have been me lol. I was stuck in a valley. Couldn't get up either hill. Called the sheriff's office to ask if they knew a tow that could deal with it, and they had someone walk down and help me push it out. That was nice.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 10:54 PM

The two I stopped and turnaround, they got out. But did see the sheriff truck go down another mud road to the east.

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 24-Jun-21 10:55 PM

Yeah they were a total mess today

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 24-Jun-21 10:57 PM

I did get east winds east of Manhattan. Started out of the north, and got a strong batch of east winds. Like 50-55mph. I’m too lazy to go back to my car and get the dash cam from it.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Jun-21 12:15 AM

https://twitter.com/iembot_mpx/status/1408275426678513665?s=20

IEMBot MPX (@iembot_mpx)

At 4:33 PM CDT, 1 S Stanley [Chippewa Co, WI] STORM CHASER reports TORNADO. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. UNKNOWN IF IT HIT ANYTHING. VIDEO PROVIDED BY TWO SEPARATE SOURCES INCLUDING A STORM CHASER. VIDEO SHOWED IT BEING ON THE CHIPPEWA COUNTY SIDE OF THE COUNTY L... https://t.co/xMGpBuMd6n

Should've picked WI