Stormtrack - 07-09-2021_ia_il_ks_mo

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:33 PM

I'll take my 5% and chase it

Nam convects just west of Omaha by 4pm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:48 PM

Classic NW flow setup @Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) , you gonna be free?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Jul-21 01:11 PM

I'm free, can you pick me up?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:25 PM

What, they don't ha e a direct from SC to KC?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Jul-21 01:27 PM

lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:33 PM

When I fly to visit fam in NC/SC I always go KC direct to Raleigh.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:46 PM

Oh Jesus. Reed said it. "Best setup of the year for Nebraska/ia" for Friday

Hype train has arrived

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 06-Jul-21 01:50 PM

Perfect. Now it can bust.

NAM didn’t look too great. Didn’t look bad.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 06-Jul-21 03:00 PM

We will see. May have to just call in sick.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 03:01 PM

If ur busy ur busy.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Jul-21 03:30 PM

Friday is a chase day. Wake up and see where the boundaries are. Definitely a local chase day. Could be worth some travel. Esp if Sat is not too far from Fri and Sun is not too far from Sat. Sure there’s insta-line or insta-blob risk; however, in July one chases Friday. (edited)

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 06-Jul-21 03:32 PM

Is it me, or does it look like the storms are going to be HP?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 04:28 PM

Pwets are high. Expect small window before HP shitstorm

5

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Jul-21 04:28 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Pwets are high. Expect small window before HP shitstorm

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 06-Jul-21 04:55 PM

Chasing flash floods

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 05:09 PM

In Nebraska, flash flood chases you.

I once was chasing and got 6" of rain in 30 mins. Proceeded to float my car down the road like a dumbass.

Some nice guys at the local Pakistani car dealership helped pull me out. Took about 3 hours to dry the exhaust to start

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 06-Jul-21 05:12 PM

~ s n o r k e l ~

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 05:16 PM

The old two risks day

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 06-Jul-21 05:25 PM

Just because I can’t get enough of wasting my gas on this irritating hobby, I’m considering going.

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 06-Jul-21 05:32 PM

Don't worry, I'm considering it, mainly because it's July. and there's not going to be storms to chase until September/October

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 06-Jul-21 05:47 PM

The thing is, I’m a teacher and am wanting to get more acquainted with summer setups up north, since I have June and July off

April and May are always an East of I35 chase for me unless it’s a weekend

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 06-Jul-21 06:25 PM

I’ll try my best to switch shifts.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 07:25 PM

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 06-Jul-21 08:35 PM

Hmm, I'm right in the middle of that. Too early yet to make any position bets

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX)

Hmm, I'm right in the middle of that. Too early yet to make any position bets

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 06-Jul-21 10:24 PM

Wait you are chasing this? When did you drive all the way up here to Nebraska?

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 06-Jul-21 10:25 PM

Actually, I'm in central Iowa this week. Hoping for some good weather

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 12:02 AM

Yeaaaaah 0z nam says we definitely chase.

Contammed, yea, but still.

GFS says you definitely chase too.

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) are you seeing the new model runs yet?

Shear vectors in the WS along with high Theta-E and PW values tell me our window of opportunity will be very short before it goes upscale, however it looks like the short time we have couple potentially be a great time. I’d like the LFCs to lower a bit though.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 12:42 AM

https://twitter.com/dunklecodywx/status/1412631092474036225?s=21

CodyDunkleWX (@DunkleCodyWX)

Eyeing a potential #chaseday in #newx and #iawx on Friday. The potential event has been trending for some time now, and cams are starting to really like a #tornado threat before quickly going linear in the evening. 00z NAM and GFS, as depicted below, agree in… (1/ ) #wxtwitter

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 10:03 AM

Maxed EHI values says we chase

Max PDS tor says we chase

20 STP with an omega that is below toxic levels? Sign me up

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

20 STP with an omega that is below toxic levels? Sign me up

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 10:10 AM

Man, this thing is moving farther north

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 10:11 AM

I would play just N or NW of Omaha. Near say....pilger.

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 10:11 AM

Pilger you say

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 10:12 AM

It's a good area to chase I hear...

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 10:12 AM

Nothing good happens in Pilger

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 10:12 AM

I mean look at the forecast theta E ridge.

You chase the point of the ridge. Which is right over...

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jul-21 10:47 AM

https://tenor.com/view/storm-lightning-tornado-weather-gif-8145453

Looks like the models want IA not NE, and late

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 10:51 AM

Yeah, 12z says jokes on you.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jul-21 10:53 AM

Tho it looks like it wants storms in NE on Thursday

Also, looks like my neck of the woods may have a chance on Saturday

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 11:00 AM

Yeah 12z really likes Iowa. Too far out to make any mesoscale accident forecasts at this point

But there could be a pretty big area of risk given multiple outflows and meso lows at play

MJO out of phase. No help there. But there is a solid vort max at 250 heading in. But it's position may favor Iowa. We'll see. Nam does like to be too fast on these setups

1

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 07-Jul-21 11:16 AM

Definitely a chase day. Quick blob risk? (Like the new blob emoji) Sure, but there's a window for real action too. Morning MCS lays boundaries under adequate shear and impressive instability. (edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 04:58 PM

I hope 18z NAM is an outlier from a chaser perspective. It pretty much killed Friday entirely @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 05:17 PM

Ah it may be because NAM is too progressive. We will see.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 07-Jul-21 05:30 PM

I threw it out the window. This setup is just a novelty to me right now anyway. I won’t get too interested until tomorrow. But it sure would be nice to have a Friday night chase

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 05:45 PM

Never forecast a meso setup more than 48 hours out. I'll see what 00z says (edited)

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 06:00 PM

Waiting for the 00z and 12z. I’d have to leave tomorrow afternoon because I’m not making a 7 hour drive in 1 day

Still leaning no right now.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jul-21 06:06 PM

NAM wants Saturday now, lol

NAM is trying to get my hopes up so it can crush them brutally in 2 days

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 06:28 PM

Thursday thru Saturday could all go potentially

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jul-21 06:30 PM

I hate being at the tail end, cause it means a lot can happen to screw it up. Its kind of like all or nothing

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 06:30 PM

18z nam3km has the i80 corridor going apeshit after 7pm. But there is a ton of convection before that which should fire in the warm sector as well

It's a meso day. Chase the indexes not the cams.

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Jul-21 06:31 PM

NAM literally losses its mind with some of the SCP values in western NE. Almost 30 after dark, lol.

https://tenor.com/view/joker-lose-mind-batman-everyone-gif-5274692

3

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 06:57 PM

RAP say Iowa

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 07:05 PM

N MO/S Iowa

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 07:20 PM

To anyone who may be chasing on Friday, or is even considering it, Royce and I are going to hold a public call tonight forecasting the event together. We will probably be in one of the voice channels here so if you want to join us please feel free to do so! The call will start at around 0200z or 0230z (3 hours from now).

See you there!

8

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 07-Jul-21 09:50 PM

Alrighty, I’ll pop in from bed

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 10:28 PM

Yep. 18z nam was an outlier. 0z is back on it.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 07-Jul-21 10:29 PM

Lieowa at it again y’all. See y’all in Lieowa

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 10:36 PM

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-Jul-21 10:54 PM

Would take

Mainly to avoid going to Iowa

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-Jul-21 11:29 PM

The analog on that first sounding is Hallam-Wilber and the other one with another big day for NE/IA/SD.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 12:07 AM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=uh_members_004h&sector=np

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 12:33 AM

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021070800_NAM_045_41.32,-95.91_severe_ml.png

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021070800_NAM_045_41.32,-95.91_severe_ml.png

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 12:49 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 12:54 AM

6/13/01 seward tornado. classic

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Click to see attachment 🖼️

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 12:55 AM

Look at all of those analogs lmao

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

6/13/01 seward tornado. classic

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 01:08 AM

Roanoke and Marion are two other analogs on that sounding.

Both F4 tornadoes.

Just as the Seward storm was.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 02:33 AM

SPC almost went 10sig already.

Also, some pretty strong wording on the discussion as well.

(For this type of event and this far out at least)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 04:19 AM

You’ve got to love Lieowa. https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/1412926910116646920?s=21

Tony Lyza (@tlyzawx)

@StormCoker But it's July, Matt. It's Iowa's time to shine.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 05:10 AM

6z nam and nam3k say Lieowa but just east and south of Council Bluffs.

HRRR seems to agree and is trying to do the same but it slows down the system by a lot and is much more progressive with the impulse coming fron ND today, has that boundary clearing the WS mid day and the environment doesn’t recover until after sundown.

Or at least it doesn’t have this extent of thermodynamic conditions recovering.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 05:41 AM

I just realized 06z suite lines up exactly with where the Spc put their 5% for D2.

And those model runs released nearly two hours after they released the outlook.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

SPC almost went 10sig already.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 06:49 AM

It’s a typo, they meant 15% sig for wind/hail

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 07:09 AM

9z rap falling pretty much in line with 6z nam and nam3k. Lieowa E and SE of Council Bluffs.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 11:16 AM

Updated models say Iowa.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Jul-21 11:21 AM

+

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Updated models say Iowa.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 08-Jul-21 11:36 AM

Go to Lieowa

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 11:43 AM

No

Will say, there’s a good chance this absolutely busts.

Especially with morning convection keeping cloud cover around.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 08-Jul-21 12:18 PM

Go

To

Lieowa

Actually Im gonna be honest, this setup does not impress me enough to go up to Iowa so im obviously sitting this one out.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 12:19 PM

It’s not a bad set up. Strong NW flow which is unusual in July.

I just see a cap bust potential, or elevated junk due to cloud cover.

And for me, I have to leave today to be there tomorrow, because I’m not making a 7+ hour drive to the target day of.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 08-Jul-21 12:20 PM

Yeah CAP is whats making me less interested

Id rather focus on Tropical season now. Unless there is a big event.

12Z 3KNAM looks messy and MCS material.

I’ll pass

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 12:23 PM

12z 3KM does have the best environment in front of it.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 08-Jul-21 12:26 PM

4000-5000 CAPE, 70+ Dews. Definitely unstable. Storms that stay discrete will have plenty to work with but again I doubt discrete mode lasts long.

Mike Snyder (Seattle, WA) 08-Jul-21 12:42 PM

Only needs to last for about an hour

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 12:45 PM

Just saw some left splits on nam3km running parallel to the front, could be the gravy zone. Would be more isolated and less upscale. SW IA into Nebraska def.

Id rather bust on blue sky than have to run from a upscale garbay

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Id rather bust on blue sky than have to run from a upscale garbay

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 12:49 PM

If you are local, you definitely chase, no doubt. Those of us that have to travel, less certain. I’ll likely make a decision around 3, since it’s going to be 5 hours to KC for the night.

Unfortunately, this truly is a mesoscale day. You’re not going to know until the morning of, and what’s happening.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 01:08 PM

https://twitter.com/aaronrigsbyosc/status/1413139515506532355?s=21

Aaron Rigsby (@AaronRigsbyOSC)

A few failure modes on the table but NAM sure is progging some of the more impressive NW flow soundings I've probably ever seen

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 01:32 PM

1

Mike Snyder (Seattle, WA) 08-Jul-21 01:47 PM

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 08-Jul-21 01:53 PM

I see they deployed enhanced

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 02:09 PM

Well take a look at this new RAP run. Tomorrow is definitely looking like it could be one of the better NW flow events in a long time, just need to keep working out Fail modes.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 08-Jul-21 02:21 PM

I figure SPC is not ready to place the 10% yet because we don’t know where the outflow boundary will settle. Barring a total rainout (not likely) maybe they drop the 10% at the 13Z or even 1630. Still won’t know at 06Z.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 02:25 PM

Yeah.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 02:37 PM

Find me a spot inside 10% tor and outside 15% sig wind and that's the target

Hatched yellow is my favor color

1

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 08-Jul-21 02:39 PM

I don't particularly like the storm motion off the boundary, basically due paralleling it

I like that one 3cape vort max up by like Sac City though

guess it will be a real time forecasting situation

looks like a day where either your really far south or really far north

and in the inbetween is a big question mark

2

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 08-Jul-21 02:45 PM

Along a warm front our outflow boundary is acceptable, even favorable, Don’t want it to cross. Quite the opposite of a dry line situation where we want perpendicular off the DL. Wish I could be there! (edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 03:04 PM

#teamwarmfront all day long on this set up.

Also team OFB.

Team WF and OFB, now that’s the sweet spot right there.

1

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Jul-21 04:00 PM

I hope it busts so I get an event I can chase Saturday.

Best of luck to all who chase tomorrow.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)

I hope it busts so I get an event I can chase Saturday.

Best of luck to all who chase tomorrow.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 08-Jul-21 04:59 PM

Saturday looks interesting for Southern IN/SW OH

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Jul-21 04:59 PM

Its jumped around pretty much every NAM run so far

There is a warm front and a surface low. Tons of moisture. Its a question of where the cloud breaks are and what the mesoscale environment looks like. My prediction is that there will be a tornado somewhere in the Midwest on Saturday. prove me wrong

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 05:05 PM

What happens Saturday will depend a lot on what happens tomorrow.

3

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 05:17 PM

Another call tonight, except @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) shows up on time

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 05:26 PM

Agreed. I can be there.

Well I’m working on a forecast tonight.

Doing a discussion.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Another call tonight, except @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) shows up on time

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 05:38 PM

I'll try. Blame the wife for yesterday

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

I'll try. Blame the wife for yesterday

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 05:49 PM

Always the wife’s fault

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 05:56 PM

Hey what if it was a good reason with the wife this time

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Always the wife’s fault

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 05:56 PM

Same time?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 05:57 PM

Maybe. I’ve debating leaving right now for KC or just leaving tomorrow morning, that way I can just not leave. Lol

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 06:01 PM

Lol

Leave for KC.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 06:01 PM

But I don’t want to chase Iowa

It never pans out

Because it’s Iowa.

It’s cursed.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 06:11 PM

Liowa. Chase the outflow in Nebraska

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-Jul-21 06:30 PM

Last time I chased Liowa was August of 2019. Beautiful blue skies until it went upscale and produced tornadoes in IL after dark.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

But I don’t want to chase Iowa

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-Jul-21 06:36 PM

Save the gas. If @Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) is chasing it will be a blue sky bust.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 06:38 PM

Won’t be blue sky, rather cloudy day bust.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 06:39 PM

Chase the indexes and the boundaries tomorrow

If meso plays out it will be a big day

But there is a good chance it will not.

If it does not, shellfire are awesome too.

It will be fun to be smacked by 80 mph winds and blinding rain lol.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 06:47 PM

The front moving SW doesn’t help, considering it usually undercuts the storm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 06:55 PM

85/76. Chase it. This is right over omaha

I'll take good thermos over big hodos all day.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 07:36 PM

Yeah anything parallel to the river that stays discrete enough has anvery impressive environment to work with.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 07:46 PM

Lots of key statements made there.

But, I’ll bust with everyone else. See ya in Liowa tomorrow.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-Jul-21 07:53 PM

same

Mike Snyder (Seattle, WA) 08-Jul-21 08:15 PM

Joining the bust party

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 08:34 PM

See y’all there! Tomorrow could be a long day. Starting to get a bit worried at how close to home it is, but we will see.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 09:03 PM

Don’t worry, your house too, can see a grey sky bust.

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 08-Jul-21 09:21 PM

oh my gosh rap's solution is hot

that is a big giant go here sign flashing near like Sac City

especially with that motion

right around the area

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 09:22 PM

Rap is going balls deep on tomorrow

I was gonna call off the chase until rap saved me

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 09:24 PM

Yeah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 09:25 PM

waits for 00z runs

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 08-Jul-21 09:26 PM

This is another nearly in-range day that pops up when I have an appointment scheduled.

And the models trend away from HP blobs...

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 09:28 PM

Don’t worry, it will Liowa us (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 08-Jul-21 09:29 PM

Maybe if I bail on Lieowa again, I'll get a backyard consolation treat like last time.

Except it'll be in SW MN instead of SE MN.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 08-Jul-21 09:30 PM

Send it north

Backyard chase NC Iowa

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX)

Send it north

Backyard chase NC Iowa

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 09:35 PM

Don’t worry, the crapvection that kills this event won’t miss you.

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 09:38 PM

Tis better to have chased and busted than never to have chased at all

Was dreading a thread from a chaser on twitter who has 400+ chases recorded and a succy rate of about 10%

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-Jul-21 09:39 PM

That’s not bad.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 09:39 PM

Feels like I'm close to that rate, but not nearly as many chases

Im like 60 chases 15%

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 09:47 PM

Ah.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-Jul-21 09:54 PM

Depends on how you define success. As long as I find a Sizzler somewhere I feel like it’s been a hell of a trip.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 09:58 PM

@Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) joining the call now.

I’ll be there when you are ready.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Jul-21 10:46 PM

brb

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-Jul-21 11:44 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 12:04 AM

https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2021070900_024_41.78--96.39.png

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 12:15 AM

https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2021070900_024_42.11--101.94.png

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 12:29 AM

Mike Snyder (Seattle, WA) 09-Jul-21 02:20 AM

I'm looking forward to tomorrow

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 03:37 AM

HRRR goes supercell printer mode. Both elevated and surface based.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 04:04 AM

NAM has better storm motion and great thermos.

Dcape emote suitable to supercells and not storms going outflow dominant so fast, promoting longer discrete modes before upscale growth.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 09:53 AM

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 09:55 AM

I plan to stage in Osceola

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 09:58 AM

I'm Osceola right now haha. There's a firework tent in the walmart parking lot that I think is going to go airborne in these gusty winds

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 10:08 AM

Models show no clearing in Iowa today, which I struggle to believe (edited)

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 10:10 AM

SPC thinks it’s going to clear

“Strong daytime heating will commence”

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 10:18 AM

Yeah, pretty much means the CAMs aren't going to show convection because they don't clear. Keeps Des Moines at 80 or lower for temps

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 10:24 AM

Willard (Madrid, IA) 09-Jul-21 10:25 AM

I plan on hanging around the house until things get going since I live in my target area. Today is one of these chase days were you throw models out the window. Follow mesoscale features and the clearing.

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 10:25 AM

Im pleasantly surprised to see that hodo at OAX on the 12z soundings, time to check the Des Moines sounding-

OH WAIT, they don't do soundings

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 10:40 AM

Definitely a high chance of busting today

But that's typical for Iowa

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:14 AM

Impossible day ugh. That mcs stabilized much of Iowa.

Might have to audible and head west to get outta the downward motion

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Might have to audible and head west to get outta the downward motion

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 11:24 AM

You're not making it to the panhandle

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:25 AM

Nope by west I mean back into eastern Nebraska

There is a theta e ridge that has formed about 50 miles west of the Missouri

Western IA likely stable until after dark

Doing meso analysis now. Will post shortly

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 11:28 AM

Right now, was looking at Griswold

But, I'm packing up, getting a shower, and will decide then

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 11:30 AM

I decided to zig instead of zag, and am now in St. Jo for lunch. Finding some internet

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:37 AM

ok. at computer now. looking at the meso. this is a mess

2 clear theta e ridges, 1 in IA, 1 in central nebraska. with some theta-E advection fighting the outflow in NW MO

vad hodos at OAX still obscene

monster gravity waves in central SD moving in slowly from the NW. quite pretty but those arrive late for round 2

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 11:46 AM

Hmm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:47 AM

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 11:47 AM

Oh wow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:47 AM

which channel to?

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 11:48 AM

Weather discussion

It’s not even 11 am and we have that kind of VAD.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:49 AM

they were supposed to be shirnking

but there is a 2nd warm front in nebraska now and winds in omaha are backed

15mph form the SE at my house

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 11:50 AM

Hmm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:50 AM

also, there is a meso-low forecast to form around 00z just NW of omaha

rap/hrrr both show it on low level vorticity

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 11:51 AM

Yeah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 11:51 AM

and there is the current boundary firing west of omaha right now. which was not supposed to exist

to the OT ranch or chaser radio?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

to the OT ranch or chaser radio?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 11:51 AM

Weather discussion.

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 12:06 PM

Clearing out nicely in Osceola. Getting hot enough that I'm looking for shade again. Wishing I went to western nebraska haha

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 09-Jul-21 12:20 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) What’s your thoughts for Southeast Missouri? Looks like it has some potential!

I’m listening to the discussion

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 12:21 PM

How do I listen in on the discussion? I'm bored in a walmart parking lot

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO)

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) What’s your thoughts for Southeast Missouri? Looks like it has some potential!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 12:26 PM

SE MO? MCS wind risk /w flooding chances

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 12:38 PM

Spc extending risk back to far western Iowa

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 01:19 PM

helluva profile for Des Moines, its on the cool side of the boundary but still pretty nasty

especially if your looking for sick structure

can reallyyy see the boundary looking at it from theta-e

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 01:33 PM

will say out of everything ive seen so far

https://i.gyazo.com/2eea723d598234e616143e4b0f4e493a.png

really don't like this

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 01:37 PM

Warned for half dollar hail north west of Des Moines. Watching the red dot migration lol

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 01:37 PM

yes

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 01:47 PM

that storm northwest of Des Moines starting to get the look to it

Willard (Madrid, IA) 09-Jul-21 01:48 PM

The storm north west Des Moines is only a few miles from my home. Heading that way now to check it out. Looks like my target verified correctly.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 01:50 PM

lightning output increasing on the storm too Williard

Willard (Madrid, IA) 09-Jul-21 02:12 PM

Tennis ball size hail has been reported out of the storm. It’s a beast.

4

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 02:25 PM

Stable air that the storm in Des Moines could kill all of Iowa.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

Stable air that the storm in Des Moines could kill all of Iowa.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 02:30 PM

Where are you hanging out?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 02:37 PM

SW Iowa

Red oak, Clarinda somewhere in that area.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 02:44 PM

Same I’m just west of Red Oak. Gonna stay put

Willard (Madrid, IA) 09-Jul-21 02:55 PM

Southwest Iowa will be my target once I’m done playing with his Hailer.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 02:56 PM

Believe that’s the warm front that’s moving north into red oak right now.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jul-21 02:56 PM

some upper rotation.

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 03:20 PM

ofb spotted

not exactly a good orientation but it will probably get the job done

https://i.gyazo.com/2dd72bd868e738cde32d456307c38e1b.png

at least rap's factoring it in now

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 03:44 PM

We are at a gas station in pacific junction right now.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 03:44 PM

Carson

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 04:12 PM

OFB slowing down. Storm is dead as expected.

SPC update:

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING OF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS IA/MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ANOTHER INTENSE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT.

(edited)

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 04:18 PM

Eventually sometime in the future, Iowa will have its first tornado. Stay with news9, we’ll keep you advised.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 04:32 PM

If I had to predict, my guess is storms will fire on and behind the OFB, but will get undercut by it, thus no tornado threat, but hail and winds. Likely southern Iowa, before moving into northern Missouri. (edited)

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 04:34 PM

5.7 LLLR's from latest Omaha sounding

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 04:38 PM

not exactly the greatest there

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 04:40 PM

Yeah, that’s blue sky bust.

You need 101 degree temp to bust that.

3

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 04:49 PM

Where we going to get the

steak dinner @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)/ @Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)?

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 04:56 PM

Busting in liowa. Joy. Round the bend in south bend, Nebraska

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 04:57 PM

Leave it to the Lieowa area to have 6k surface based cape and nothing.

DMX says storms will fire, just after 00z. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 05:04 PM

We are gonna sit here and wait...for a bit. Might move around a little

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 05:06 PM

I’m sitting near Nebraska city.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 09-Jul-21 05:14 PM

@Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) you were right about Lieowa.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 05:16 PM

Lieowa never fails. There will be storms late tonight, so Iowa will see rain.

Right now, I’m working a tan.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 05:19 PM

maybe initiation in southeast Nebraska near Beatrice and north of Manhattan KS?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 05:20 PM

Anything in that area is elevated.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 05:20 PM

ah

ok

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 09-Jul-21 05:24 PM

I say it’s steak time

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 05:26 PM

This was such a good warmup for the cold front shitshow at home tomorrow.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 05:29 PM

I will say, farther east near Des Moines, the 700s should be a lot cooler than Omaha, but I don’t see forcing (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jul-21 05:30 PM

Not the only ones guys. Lots of others out there.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

Not the only ones guys. Lots of others out there.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 05:30 PM

Definitely. Some have already packed and left. Lots still waiting.

Storms will fire, it just might be 10pm

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 05:31 PM

I’m just loitering. If you never go, you’ll never see

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jul-21 05:31 PM

yep, man this is like year of the bust. No offense guys. I feel ya.

3

hopefully you get a great Light and wind show later on?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 05:33 PM

New storms east of Des Moines on the other gradient. Still cool side.

Willard (Madrid, IA) 09-Jul-21 05:50 PM

I’m glad I caught that supercell near home earlier this afternoon because I’m thinking there’s not gonna be much here along the outflow boundary until after dark. I’m tempted to go home take a nap and do lightning ops after dark.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

yep, man this is like year of the bust. No offense guys. I feel ya.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Jul-21 05:51 PM

Truth right there! Its been a frustrating year for me. But I still have ended up with some great footage/time lapses. Its just all been just a few chases, and even those didn't feel always like total successes either.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 05:51 PM

http://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines/status/1413616728366411776

NWS Des Moines (@NWSDesMoines)

We are closely watching the outflow boundary to the west of Des Moines for new thunderstorm development over the next few hours. If t-storms develop, severe weather is likely with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. Stay tuned if you have outdoor plans. #iawx

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 09-Jul-21 05:54 PM

I'm up in northern Iowa. Getting some fishing done. Great temps, mid sun. Great CU to my west. It's going to to be like pulling a magic rabbit out of a hat....backyard play if any

(edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 09-Jul-21 05:58 PM

If only that gravity wave would help kick some parcels up. Of course, seeing that gravity wave in the warm sector makes me think of a cap that refuses to break. (edited)

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 09-Jul-21 06:02 PM

I'm picking up in Eau Claire. Hoping they have me rolling in a couple hours or so, but looks like I'll be keeping my head on a swivel tonight. Not so much concerned about the tor threat (I can drive around those) as I am wind in the big rig.

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 06:19 PM

https://i.gyazo.com/d43f5e9358ce17b7428da8e63787a5e0.png

yikes

western nebraska's doing just fine though

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 09-Jul-21 06:32 PM

Guess Arizona was the correct target area today

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 06:33 PM

Just as we all predicted.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 07:20 PM

Y’all still out there? @Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 09-Jul-21 07:28 PM

https://i.gyazo.com/52778d99b28a113083312a72ef23fda5.png

are you kidding me

850 temps are STILL being advected

that is a nasty cap bust right there

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 07:33 PM

Yeah we are headed north from Villisca closer to the convergence zone along the interstate. I see an impulse coming from northeast Nebraska on satellite along that zone that I’m watching closely. Royce had car issues and had to drop back home so I am now with @Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO)

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 07:34 PM

My disappointment is growing lol

I’m near winterset Iowa watching towers go up and die

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 07:36 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 07:36 PM

Radiator leak. Burning antifreeze. Grounded for 2 weeks until I can get into shop

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 07:37 PM

They aren’t even talking about a watch. I’m sleeping in my own bed tonight boys

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 07:37 PM

The funny part is. The cap is gone. There is just zero forcinf

The warm front washed out and the shortwave dove into Wyoming instead

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 07:44 PM

Tornado warning for Nebraska.

As we stated this morning, panhandle was likely the best shot today. (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 09-Jul-21 07:45 PM

5

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 07:45 PM

I am surprised they didn’t drop it to 2% at the last update.

Or just flipped it with the west target.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 07:49 PM

They are still waiting for that ofb to go lol.

We are just going to keep being patient.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 07:52 PM

To me though, that’s very conditional, which the SPC usually lowers everything on, since it’s so conditional.

That’s why I thought they’d lower it, due to uncertainty in storms.

FYI, I went back to my hotel, about 2 hours ago or so. Lol

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 07:57 PM

Lol

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 08:02 PM

Didn’t want to miss those free drink ticket I get for a clear sky. Plus, likely taking a nap to wake up to the line tonight to get some lightning photos.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 08:03 PM

You aren’t going back to OKC? David and Mike are getting antsy about tomorrow

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 08:05 PM

Not tonight. I’ll head that way tomorrow

Probably will chase in northern ok

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)

FYI, I went back to my hotel, about 2 hours ago or so. Lol

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 08:07 PM

Are you in KC?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 08:07 PM

Yeah.

Main goal was southern Iowa today, to back to KC for the night, then head to OKC tomorrow, with maybe a pit stop in southern Ks/ northern OK, before getting home

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 08:09 PM

My backyard in Omaha. (Patio is warm when sun is on it)

Confirmed. I have radiator leak. Air bubbles making it overheat

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 08:13 PM

Oof, radiator bust on a blue sky bust. Terrible combo

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 08:13 PM

I’m just hoofing it back to Joplin tonight and will see what we have in the morning.

Sorry about the rain radiator. That blows, literally

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 08:21 PM

That sucks.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jul-21 08:26 PM

On the plus side. Wife brought me home rocky mountain oysters from the steakhouse

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 08:27 PM

https://twitter.com/PawneeStorm/status/1413655501955428352

Pawnee Storm Chasers (@PawneeStorm)

Tornado Warned Storm crossing Alliance, Nebraska minutes ago. @NWSCheyenne #wxtwitter #newx https://t.co/dwn2KC3sra

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 09-Jul-21 08:34 PM

Leaving Eau Claire in the big rig now. We'll see what I see in Lieowa after dark

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 09-Jul-21 08:55 PM

See ya soon if you take HWY 18

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 08:56 PM

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX)

See ya soon if you take HWY 18

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 09-Jul-21 09:06 PM

Nope. 94 to 35 and down

1

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 09-Jul-21 09:07 PM

Glad I stayed home. Actually overslept, but I was kinda hyped after last night's discussion.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 09:27 PM

storms starting to fire in south central Iowa

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 09:30 PM

Get after it guys, you just have around half an hour of ambient light left

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 09:32 PM

I don't have enough connection to upload, pic but the cell near osceola iowa has a nice base, but looks outflow-y

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI)

I don't have enough connection to upload, pic but the cell near osceola iowa has a nice base, but looks outflow-y

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 09:33 PM

It’s on the cool side of the boundary.

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 09:34 PM

Yep. Pretty tho

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 09:34 PM

I couldn’t believe how bad my data was up there. Another reason I decided to cut my losses

Vince Waelti (Monroe, WI) 09-Jul-21 09:35 PM

I have a bonded router with 3 carrier, so i typically don't have issues, but I'm only getting a weak ATT signal where i'm sitting to timelapse right now. kind of irritating

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 09:35 PM

I’m headed back out. At least I can get lightning.

Another 1.5 hour drive here we go

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 09-Jul-21 09:51 PM

That SW Iowa cellular sucks. Lack of towers in the Amish areas

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 09-Jul-21 10:18 PM

Finally a warning for that cell

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 09-Jul-21 10:20 PM

With @Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) eating cheap steaks at Red Robin after a blue sky bust. I hate Iowa now! LOL (edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 10:20 PM

Lol Red Robin is awesome.

We may still head out to get the western stuff.

Some lightning at least.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 09-Jul-21 10:23 PM

Yeah in Nebraska, not Iowa.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 11:11 PM

Lieowa

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 11:12 PM

The storms overnight are going to be racing south to southeast roughly 50-70 MPH

especially in Nebraska

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-Jul-21 11:18 PM

This storm is dying.

Lightning is cool, although not photogenic.

Mainly because there’s a down burst of water blocking all the strikes.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Jul-21 11:21 PM

Extremely dangerous storm currently in the northwest Nebraska Panhandle.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 09-Jul-21 11:43 PM

About to pass through Lincoln. Chasing the MCS bois.

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 10-Jul-21 12:43 AM

Looking twards St.Louis from Dittmer, Missouri

4

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 10-Jul-21 10:47 AM

Omaha was hit hard last night from the storms.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 11-Jul-21 01:06 PM

Based on some of the power line damage to our south (sheared off mid pole) there is evidence of possible meso vorts/spinups that occured. Radar supported

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 11-Jul-21 01:12 PM

I wouldn't be surprised given the high CAPE and turbulence of two cold pools colliding over the city.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 11-Jul-21 01:21 PM

The oddball 96mph gust with 63 sustained at OMA eppley might have been in a spin up since it was about 20mph higher than all over area obs

That zone of spin appeared to move SSW on radar into eastern Papillion where I live and where much of the worst damage was

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 11-Jul-21 01:22 PM

Have they ever confirmed it. Last I saw, they thought it was an error reading

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 11-Jul-21 01:23 PM

They did confirm it to be real. Ties all time record

Eppley is down by the river and usually get shielded by the bad straight lines. We had a 110 and 130 recorded west side of town in the last 20 years

Whoever decided to plant maple trees over the entire city was an idiot

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

The oddball 96mph gust with 63 sustained at OMA eppley might have been in a spin up since it was about 20mph higher than all over area obs

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 11-Jul-21 02:39 PM

I actually thought it was a microburst at the time.

I do remember seeing a broad meso in the line on radar. It was on the eastern half somewhere.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 11-Jul-21 03:03 PM

There was a very stout Rear inflow jet. A couple of inbound eddies formed on the front flank, typical signal of a brief LEWP tor. However they are very hard to confirm, in particular at night

5

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