Stormtrack - 07-28-2021_mn

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Jul-21 03:53 PM

So it has begun.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Jul-21 03:53 PM

So who's ready for the

?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Jul-21 03:54 PM

Well bookend it my man.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Storm Prediction Center Jul 27, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

Tor

Wind Hatched

Hail Hatched

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Jul-21 04:09 PM

I may not have to go far for this, but I'm not going to have radar if I go out.

But it will be literal forest chasing.

3

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Jul-21 04:18 PM

Be ready for the bookends my friend.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Jul-21 04:57 PM

NAM 3k wants to go full D-word with embedded supers in WI tomorrow.

Especially NW WI.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Jul-21 05:06 PM

SCPs in the 60s Burnett Co, WI.

And with 18z HRRR wanting to develop a lone super around there, maybe there will be a quick forest wedge tomorrow. I can see a 30% SIG or 45% SIG wind in the outlook tomorrow if models stick with this trend of high helicity, shear, and 1200+ DCAPEs. (edited)

Might even be an initial sig hail threat with the big NCAPEs.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Jul-21 05:12 PM

HRRR wants full on prefrontal supercell fest. I am skeptical, but tomorrow does have high potential

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Jul-21 05:14 PM

Yeah, I'm skeptical as well on long-term discrete storm modes.

I personally see supers quickly going linear, but tornado potential will be there either way.

I see current trends matching what the SPC has for tomorrow right now numbers-wise (5% tor/30% wind + sig/15% hail + sig). Hot 850 mb temps make me reluctant to suggest a 45% sig wind right now.

Hot H8.5s and poor low-level lapse rates are a couple of possible failure modes that I see.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Jul-21 11:14 PM

00Z model check time.

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 28-Jul-21 01:51 AM

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERAL TORNADOES, ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

`

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 01:52 AM

Oh boy.

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 28-Jul-21 01:52 AM

10% Tor too

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 28-Jul-21 01:53 AM

Not too often you see a MDT in Wisconsin.

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 28-Jul-21 01:53 AM

I held off with going MDT on my personal forecast, SPC pulled the gun before me, and I spent a few hours on it, pain, endless pain

Derecho mentioned

ANY INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH RATHER FAST UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES (BOTH INITIALLY AND EMBEDDED WITHIN DEVELOPING BOW ECHO/DERECHO).

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 01:54 AM

Yeah, I wasn't sure about 45% sig wind because of some model inconsistencies.

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 28-Jul-21 01:54 AM

More than once

A FAVORABLE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER MN/WI TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY, SUPPORTING INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE DERECHO DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT, A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHEAST WI WITH THE INITIAL DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 01:54 AM

00Z NAM was really crazy with the 0-3 km SRH (up to 800 in NW WI).

But it was an outlier.

I was personally thinking 5% tor/30% sig wind/15% sig hail with 45% sig wind possible.

Diego Garcia (DeKalb, IL - NIU) 28-Jul-21 02:18 AM

I was right on everything but the wind. I had 10% tor/30% sig wind/ 15% sig hail

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 28-Jul-21 03:24 AM

06Z HRRR is full blown

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/701236197657280642/869843023897440256/06Z-20210728_HRRRMW_prec_radar-0-26-10-100.gif

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 28-Jul-21 03:36 AM

Although much further east than other guidance, a bit puzzled

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-21 04:55 AM

Geez this impressive.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 07:33 AM

@Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ can we get an event channel for Thursday?

Josh S. (Crest Hill, IL) 28-Jul-21 07:34 AM

If model trends hold I’ll be home for this one

Too late and too far NE

Someone on the W Michigan coast is going to get one HELL of a timelapse tho

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-Jul-21 08:39 AM

I am trying to decide how late I should stay up for this...

Cameron (KMXX | GA)

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/701236197657280642/869843023897440256/06Z-20210728_HRRRMW_prec_radar-0-26-10-100.gif

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 08:44 AM

LOL that morning convection over the Twin Cities is verifying.

And it's heckin' humid for 7:44 AM CST.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-Jul-21 09:25 AM

12z HRRR is back to showing a long tracked potentially tornadic supercell following the I 94 corridor along W WI. As we say up here: OOFDAH!

Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

@Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ can we get an event channel for Thursday?

Briella | @Helicity (NOLA) 28-Jul-21 10:25 AM

Added. Correct me if I have the states wrong.

Briella | @Helicity (NOLA)

Added. Correct me if I have the states wrong.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 10:26 AM

Thank you! Probably could add WV in there too but it’s no biggy.

1

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 28-Jul-21 10:30 AM

https://i.gyazo.com/45b615ced8ba13703a3e190f039d13db.png

man that sounding is hot in dry

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 28-Jul-21 10:31 AM

That would be four popeyes biscuits no drink

Brennen Round (Chatfield, MN) 28-Jul-21 10:31 AM

and it only looks like its gonna get hotter in the mid levels just by looking at the Aberdeen sounding https://i.gyazo.com/55dadb2b0f4ed367efe730d693f36c66.png

with 850 winds out of the WSW

BUT downstream green bay looks pretty good https://i.gyazo.com/cee95da7bdf19b91a061a390dbc353b9.png

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 10:44 AM

Models can't agree on the warm front position and how large the theta-e advection gets in Wisconsin.

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 28-Jul-21 11:33 AM

Getting ready for the potential seiche event

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL)

Getting ready for the potential seiche event

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 28-Jul-21 12:52 PM

That is one of the coolest phenomenon of the Great Lakes

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 28-Jul-21 12:55 PM

Could have a sloshing bowl effect as well on the Chicago shoreline

Hits SW MI, then bounces back and hits NE IL shoreline. Just depends how intense/track of the

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 28-Jul-21 01:10 PM

tbh this setup is really depending on those higher dews advecting into NE MN

otherwise this events toast

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 01:13 PM

Severe cell in Chisago Co that the HRRR didn't see. Wonder if that little guy's going to affect future runs.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-Jul-21 03:51 PM

The latest NAM run is nuts! Over 30 SCP. Not sure I believe it. Its also much earlier than the RAP/HRRR

RAP/HRRR is about 2-4 points under the actual dewpoint. NAM/3k is about 2-3 points over the current dew. Split the difference in the solutions? I would be cautious trusting the HRRR/RAP timing. I think it will fire sooner than that models. (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 28-Jul-21 04:05 PM

Welp...

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-Jul-21 04:06 PM

HRRR not showing convection until 8:00 cdt. I don't buy that for one second. I think it will fire a bit farther east than modeled, closer to the NAM solution. I think storms will initiate in MN around 5:30 - 6:30 timeframe. Derecho by 9:00. Its going to be a long night for the people of WI, MI, and MN

Ben Holcomb (Norman OK) 28-Jul-21 05:44 PM

Have you looked at water vapor?

At best, the jet is just entering NW MN.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 07:24 PM

Looks like a cell trying it's hardest to convect nearby.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 28-Jul-21 08:15 PM