Stormtrack - 07-29-2021_mi_oh_pa

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 28-Jul-21 10:30 AM

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 10:34 AM

Models are being very inconsistent on storm mode BUT it does look like storms will initiate in northern OH/PA

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 12:39 PM

Better backed hodos showing up and trending in SW PA/Eastern OH/WV Panhandle regions

Heard talks of a 10% but I doubt, IF one where to happen that would be the area I’d put it in

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 28-Jul-21 12:59 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/484924724258799647/869986285262098452/unknown.png?width=924&height=701

YOO HAHA

thats right over me

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 01:05 PM

Wtf WRF

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 28-Jul-21 01:06 PM

let me preface this by saying im extremely skeptical of the nam3k solution

but

i feel like people arent talking enough about the easternmost portion of the risk

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 01:17 PM

Tbh I’m liking the NAM 3k solution a lot with storm mode

Mixed mode along the front

Don’t really think Eastern PA is gonna be the play tbh

Also that’s a FAR fuckin drive

For a lower end setup like this

As of now I love the SW PA play

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 28-Jul-21 01:32 PM

Yes, bring storms to me.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 01:46 PM

This is my TA as of now

Shitty terrain but I love the challenge

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 28-Jul-21 02:10 PM

Oh the terrain is garbage

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 02:16 PM

Solid

SW PA

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 02:59 PM

OMG

1

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 04:47 PM

NE OH

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 28-Jul-21 04:55 PM

North central MD

Not sure why the EIL is so shallow but that hodo is HOT

probably fake news tho

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 05:04 PM

My house; SE OH

Really thinking we could see a 10%

James T. (NW OH) 28-Jul-21 06:22 PM

Unlikely due to recovery issues

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 06:52 PM

I think that won’t be an issue

We will have several hours for recovery

James T. (NW OH) 28-Jul-21 07:02 PM

Cloud cover is a concern

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 07:38 PM

https://twitter.com/brandoncopicwx/status/1420526901135806468?s=21

Brandon Copic (@BrandonCopicWx)

Aint gonna lie...tomorrow intrigues me. HORRIBLE TERRAIN...but good tornado potential.

James T. (NW OH)

Cloud cover is a concern

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 28-Jul-21 07:41 PM

it all depends on how today evolves

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 28-Jul-21 08:20 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-Jul-21 09:22 PM

I think we could get another derecho tomorrow in IN. If the Eastern storms win out today that will shift the threat tomorrow farther west.

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 29-Jul-21 12:47 AM

Oh word

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Jul-21 12:47 AM

That map is so full of shit

Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

That map is so full of shit

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 29-Jul-21 01:01 AM

I know lmao

It’s fine with picking out the target areas but the probs are

A bit uncalibrated

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 29-Jul-21 09:20 AM

Definitly not as juicy as modeled yesterday. But we all knew today's forecast was uncertain until the weather yesterday ran its course.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Jul-21 09:21 AM

Today’s shit

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 29-Jul-21 09:25 AM

Thats how it goes. I am learning that if I am on day 2 of a multiday event to not take anything seriously until the morning of. Several chases/chase opportunities this year have been like this. Today looks like a chase local if I get anything kind of day. Nothing worth driving for at this point. But we will see how it evolves

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Jul-21 09:25 AM

I’m going to IN

Worst decision and will probably bust hard as hell

But oh well

PA WF Tubes today

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 29-Jul-21 09:28 AM

I may well meet up with you Norman. So thats a plus. I will likely chase E IN as well. But I am not sure about terrain and timing yet

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Jul-21 09:28 AM

Tornadoes will be in the mid Atlantic prob

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 29-Jul-21 09:30 AM

The storms may well fire right over me here in Lafayette

Then track along the I 65 corridor towards INDY. The terrain S of Indy is not ideal, especially the area W of Bloomington. Super Hilly.

Lets talk later Norman, but I believe initiation will happen over N Central Indiana, in about 6 hours. My thought is hope for prefrontal, but failing that, setup for some lightining timelapse and shelf clouds.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 29-Jul-21 09:47 AM

Now models seems to favor W IN, though favor is strong language for todays's setup

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Jul-21 09:48 AM

Half tempted to take 50 east to get on 77 to head to PA

Damn just seen a state highway patrol pull someone over

Rip

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 29-Jul-21 09:55 AM

Better them than you I always say.

NAM solution much stronger on the helicity, thats the major difference. RAP has almost none until very late. NAM has plenty.

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 29-Jul-21 10:02 AM

If the sun could come out that would amplify this so much

It’s so sticky outside

The dews are there

We just need some surface heating please god

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 30-Jul-21 01:00 PM

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 30-Jul-21 03:18 PM

https://twitter.com/nwsiln/status/1421175916462592005?s=21

NWS Wilmington OH (@NWSILN)

An EF0 tornado has been confirmed in Pickaway County, Ohio. Details at the following link. https://t.co/V3b9nYzuxJ

https://twitter.com/nws_mountholly/status/1421157889771769859?s=21

NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly)

We have confirmed 2 tornadoes in Ocean County, NJ in the Waretown and Cedar Bridge area in Barnegat Township. Both rated EF1 with winds of 100-105 mph. More details tonight. Multiple storm survey's continue. #njwx

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Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

https://twitter.com/nwsiln/status/1421175916462592005?s=21

James T. (NW OH) 30-Jul-21 03:18 PM

Ayyy I got my 4th tornado (edited)

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 30-Jul-21 03:38 PM

https://twitter.com/nws_mountholly/status/1421192772426600449?s=21

NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly)

3:30 PM: A confirmed EF3 tornado in Bucks County in the Bensalem/Trevose area with peak winds to 140 mph. The storm damage survey team mentioned the most intense damage was to car dealerships and an adjacent mobile home park. More details tonight. #pawx

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 30-Jul-21 05:48 PM

https://twitter.com/iembot_rlx/status/1421222512168378369?s=21

IEMBot RLX (@iembot_rlx)

RLX issues Public Information Statement (PNS) at Jul 30, 5:33 PM EDT ...Brief EF0 Tornado Confirmed Near Macksburg in Washington County Ohio on July 29, 2021... https://t.co/FU6ZEkfKU7