Stormtrack - 2021_hurricane-elsa

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 03-Jul-21 02:55 AM

Ground Zero channel will be launched closer to gametime.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 03-Jul-21 07:45 AM

Assuming Elsa doesn’t fall apart due to the large decoupling issue going on, will anyone chase this? (edited)

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 03-Jul-21 08:31 AM

Depending on timing and strength most likely be watching from a distance. Not quite the same, but gotta keep the family safe.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)

Assuming Elsa doesn’t fall apart due to the large decoupling issue going on, will anyone chase this? (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 08:58 AM

This is looking more increasingly the case right now

Has weakened considerably overnight

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS)

Has weakened considerably overnight

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 09:00 AM

Storm is not going down without a fight, latest CB is finally completely over the LLC, SFMR's are still 50+ kt but a far cry from where it was. Latest HWRF has the system weaker overall but still a formidable enough TS or low-end hurricane in Florida, then a TS off the SC/NC coast

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Jul-21 09:01 AM

Would not be surprised if the vunerable core falls apart significantly when passing over Cuba, maybe down to a weak TS

Could restrengthen in between there and Florida though

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 09:02 AM

Yeah, that’s the gfs solution currently ^

Falls apart over Cuba then regather itself over the gulf (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 09:08 AM

Looking like my general TA

As of now a lot probably going to change

Cameron (KMXX | GA)

Storm is not going down without a fight, latest CB is finally completely over the LLC, SFMR's are still 50+ kt but a far cry from where it was. Latest HWRF has the system weaker overall but still a formidable enough TS or low-end hurricane in Florida, then a TS off the SC/NC coast

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 09:14 AM

MLC is still out ahead of that CB, see if it draws it back in.

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 09:24 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1411314618472009730

NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay)

Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 satellite picking up a few ticks of lightning near the center of #Elsa in the last 30 minutes. #FLwx https://t.co/ORrHu2hr6K

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 09:24 AM

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 09:41 AM

https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1411318738725523459

KeviShader (@KeviShader)

The most recent recon fixes suggest that while #Elsa is filling in somewhat (pressure ~1002mb) the storm is also slowing down slowly. I calculated a WNW movement of around 26mph, roughly 7mph slower than during the previous NHC full advisory. Further slowing anticipated.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 09:43 AM

Yeah it’s expected to slow further, it’s reaching the edge of the ridge

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 09:43 AM

Probs explain how these CB's are finally being able to build upshear just a bit better this morning compared to last night

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 10:03 AM

Latest recon pass in

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 10:48 AM

Yeah if this is a TS at US landfall I’m not committing boss

1

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 10:48 AM

70 mph and 999 mb currently per the advisory (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 10:48 AM

Welp

TS

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 10:48 AM

Moving WNW at 29 mph so still moving very fast

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 10:49 AM

Idk a Hurricane US landfall is looking very unlikely

However I wouldn’t mind chasing this

TS or not

I mean latest advisory still has it strengthening in the gulf

That’s very interesting

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 11:32 AM

Latest advisory has it at a 70 mph tropical storm. But storm surge and near hurricane force winds will be a major concern in the Caribbean. Especially for Eastern Cuba and others.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

However I wouldn’t mind chasing this

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 11:35 AM

That shear according to the sounding is pretty shallow. Also it's pretty close to the surface. That will be detrimental for it plus it will lead to a greater vortex tilt.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 11:35 AM

Yeah just not really sure on this one

Already called off work for this but

‍♂️

Depends on how Elsa in terms of weakening again or strengthening. And if it crosses Cuba either from the western side or if it goes central will be the effect if I go or not

I still think if I can go over western Cuba it can still have the chance to go hurricane status again

But if it goes over those mountains.....ouch

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 11:42 AM

Recon is not finding a LLC that's well-developed.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 11:43 AM

Yeah Elsa I feel like is almost a GG at this point

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 03-Jul-21 11:44 AM

Her Frozen heart is dying eh?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 11:44 AM

Approaching dmin in a few hours too, going to be awhile to get it’s act together again (edited)

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 11:48 AM

In before I have to look up DMIN and DMAX.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)

Her Frozen heart is dying eh?

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 11:48 AM

Banned

1

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 11:49 AM

So DMIN is convection after sunrise and DMAX is before sunrise, if I understand correctly.

Also according to recon data.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 11:50 AM

Dmin is usually when convection is at its minimum in the tropics which occurs around mid afternoon typically but can vary

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 11:50 AM

Here’s the thing

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 11:50 AM

Dmax is the opposite. Convection at its strongest and happens during the height of night into early morning (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 11:50 AM

I want a hurricane before college (Aug 23) and idk if that’s gonna happen

Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

I want a hurricane before college (Aug 23) and idk if that’s gonna happen

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 11:52 AM

Cckw and mjo are looking very favorable for an active Atlantic in late July/early August so I wouldn’t worry yet

The first land obstacle about to happen for Elsa

SW Haiti has a 5000 ft peak, might kill the circulation further if it doesn’t miss it

Well recon just found 60 knot SFMRs lol. Nhc pegged it right on

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 12:38 PM

This could go further westward.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 12:39 PM

If it does it’ll strengthen

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 02:08 PM

Sliding itself just south of land interaction atm

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 02:09 PM

Hmmm

That’s interesting

Wonder if it’ll move more west

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 02:10 PM

Larger temp spike, bigger pressure depression, seems to be allowing convection to finally build upshear and initiate over the center

Storm may be trying to needle its way through, if it can do so allows more time for any attempt of reintensifying before Cuba

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1411377118135603200?s=09

Hank Dolce (@hankd_wx)

Some convection is firing west of #Elsa, in addition to cumulus congestus growth on the west side of the LLC and the overall slowing down of the storm. We could see some upshear growth as it likely tracks south of Haiti, where orographic lift may fire off its own activity later. https://t.co/DxQ3Cm3Gyb

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 02:44 PM

@Norman Smith (Racine, OH) Pressure is dropping again (edited)

Latent heat doing its work

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 02:46 PM

Reed thinks Elsa may die completely when it hits Cuba

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 02:52 PM

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1411397227550027782

TCAlert (@WxTca)

#Elsa appears to be trying to intensify again this afternoon. Each temp. spike associated with a center pass is progressively warmer, indicative of convective bursts strengthening the warm core through latent heat release. The latest pass found extrapolated pressures near 997mb.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 02:54 PM

Next advisory at 5?

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 03:02 PM

18Z Envelope shifted south and West

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 03:04 PM

If that shifts more south or west

Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

Next advisory at 5?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Jul-21 03:35 PM

Yep full advisory at 5

Just a little further southwest and it avoids those high Cuban peaks. They might still inhibit inflow but restrengthening to a hurricane is absolutely on the table

It’s approaching diurnal minimum rn so late tonight/early tomorrow as it heads towards Cuba will be a solid opportunity for intensification

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 03-Jul-21 03:40 PM

Still a lot of questions to be answered

If it hits central Cuba it’ll be a weak TS I bet

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Jul-21 03:47 PM

Could also track directly down the spine of Cuba like the HMOn depicts. That would shred the circulation and leave a weak trough in the gulf.

Alex (Wausau, WI) 03-Jul-21 03:48 PM

Looks like she's wrapping towers around, I wouldn't write her off yet

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 03-Jul-21 04:53 PM

https://twitter.com/dunklecodywx/status/1411425111194935298?s=21

CodyDunkleWX (@DunkleCodyWX)

#Elsa showing signs of re-intensification just S of Haiti. Recent Recon indicates a slight drop in pressure in a few hours and core temps are rising as depicted below. The core is now at roughly 16.2°C and rising. Worth keeping an eye on! #TropicalStormElsa #tropics #wxtwitter

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 10:14 PM

We'll see what Elsa does during DMAX.

But yeah, it's going.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 10:18 PM

Ripa is ticking up again

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 10:21 PM

Recon is going into it again for another pass.

Ardent(North Georgia) 03-Jul-21 10:23 PM

Elsa has finally got the center well under the convection. It'll be interesting to see how it develops overnight.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 10:24 PM

Which hurricane last year did an overnight CDO blast but never got an eye despite a big RI?

Ardent(North Georgia) 03-Jul-21 10:24 PM

I'm pretty sure it was delta.

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 10:28 PM

It's happening again:. Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 3.7% 3.1% 25kt / 24h 9.5% 20.0% 14.8% 30kt / 24h 6.2% 12.3% 9.2% 35kt / 24h 2.8% 12.3% 7.5% 40kt / 24h 2.7% 11.4% 7.0% 45kt / 36h 7.0% 8.9% 7.9% 55kt / 36h 2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 55kt / 48h 7.3% 10.0% 8.7% 70kt / 48h 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 5.8% 3.4% 4.6%

And I think ur right on delta being the stealth beast

Dry air is gone. OHC over 100 now

Massive lightning all over the CDO

Ardent(North Georgia) 03-Jul-21 10:37 PM

I'm a little late to mentioning this, but about 50 minutes ago Elsa managed to get some cloud tops as cold as -90C which isn't unheard of but still pretty impressive.

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 03-Jul-21 10:48 PM

HWRF's 18z run has this for 15Z tomorrow.

Given how it has verified a bit, it is interesting to see what will happen.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1411517636421197835

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Tropical Storm #Elsa Advisory 15: Reconnaissance Aircraft Finds Elsa a Little Weaker and Moving Slower Between Haiti and Jamaica. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 11:01 PM

Given the wind went down, it's because the field has spread and is evening out. Towers will lead pressure drop. Then winds will follow that

Also I think the hunters missed the true center on their runs

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 11:13 PM

People speculating Elsa having a CCC

Just like Sally last season. Usually indicates a disruption in the cyclone

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1411522011692634117?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

#Elsa is beginning to develop a classic central cold cover (CCC)/amorphous "blob" pattern, w/ extremely deep cloud tops <-80°C & little-no banding. This CCC pattern was found by Dvorak ('84) to be assoc. w/ interrupted development & corroborates what recon has found this evening https://t.co/vzLN7L2XS7

Chris (Eastern WI) 03-Jul-21 11:17 PM

Lamens terms its very disorganized

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 11:23 PM

The intense banding forming wide out is bad

The circulation is wide. But it can. Respin back up fast

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 11:23 PM

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1411525174588022787

Hank Dolce (@hankd_wx)

Recon has found that #Elsa continues to be weird. The column is dry despite the convective cover, but it also appears there’s a center discontinuity. Easterly winds where the center would be means the track would have dipped south, though I’m not very confident in that.

Is there anything to explain this by any chance?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 11:24 PM

We had a Dvorak spike to like 6.5 for a minute. It's pulling a delta

Good divergence aloft and poor convergence at the surface.

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 03-Jul-21 11:26 PM

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1411525176605528064

Hank Dolce (@hankd_wx)

Take this tweet with a grain of salt. This storm is acting really weirdly right now. Radar looks decent but everything else suggests something completely different.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 11:27 PM

Vorticity is poor and far south. It likely had issues pulling in vorticity since it was so far south

Last couple hours of convection are just bonkers. Cannot emphasize that enough

Cloud tops are now pinwheeling. Not good. This could drop an eye at any time if, big if, it can hold together a center in 1 spot

Gravity waves in the CDO usually indicate RI. The loss of a center is likely do to a new center forming

See how the red line spiked? Dvorak is seeing what the wind is not

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 11:41 PM

Possible center relocation there

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Jul-21 11:47 PM

It's trying to from and eye even with the disorganized center. Delta style

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Jul-21 11:48 PM

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1411531542728429568

Michael Fischer (@MikeFischerWx)

What is this??? Strongly confluent flow near the intense convective burst in #Elsa. Signs of the 700 hPa center reforming? This storm is quite bizarre.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Jul-21 12:35 AM

Center is totally covered in lightning and inside the eastern CDO

RI is occuring with no organized center.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Jul-21 01:22 AM

Major south wabble. Jamaica now in the direct line

So I've never seen ri like this before without an organized center. The comment from everyone that this is strange is correct. Not sure if it can keep it up for long

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Jul-21 01:42 AM

Appear to have 4 hot towers spread around a center now. But the max wind is quite well removed from that center. Madness

Recon finds center of Elsa......east

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Jul-21 01:52 AM

So no one made a frozen pun because Elsa had -94c tops?

1

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Jul-21 01:55 AM

I mean, Elsa is letting go and going for LLC & MLC vertical alignment perquisites

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 04-Jul-21 02:43 AM

https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1411575948433055745

KeviShader (@KeviShader)

After #Elsa’s downshear LLCC reformation a few hours ago, radar is now picking up on a curved band structure near the new center, suggesting that upshear convection is currently favorable enough to favor organization. These can be fickle though, as seen in Sally last year. https://t.co/Kj4IIHVjb2

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 08:11 AM

It rose to the pressure of an open wave according to the latest recon data.

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 09:08 AM

So far, recon seems to have won out both in intensity and in pressure. In the last couple of missions, Elsa’s minimum pressure rose to that of a wave. SAB estimates the storm at a T3.5/3.5 and an intensity of 55 knots. ADT reports a CI# of 4.5 and a Vmax of 77 knots. However, recon has not found winds close to that, nor the pressure.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Jul-21 09:20 AM

Dry air intrusion appears to be putting a stop to the CDO burst. But the speed change is going to really throw a hook into the forecast

Ships / RIPA surging on RI odds now. Amsu indicating storm has strengthened despite mph loss

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 04-Jul-21 10:48 AM

What a messy system lol

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 10:51 AM

To say that Tropical Storm Elsa has been one of the most puzzling phenomena in tropical meteorology is quite an understatement. It has pretty much tested the question of recon versus Dvorak estimates. Its track is also very puzzling to say the least.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1411700337916846091

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Tropical Storm #Elsa Advisory 17: Tropical Storm Warning Issued For Portions of the Florida Keys. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 04-Jul-21 12:36 PM

Nothing like having a tropical wave looking thing with near hurricane force winds

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 12:51 PM

Oh yes.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Jul-21 01:35 PM

This was the first update that had the storms IKE below cat 1 since it went hurricane (edited)

Microwave looking much more organized now.

Adt, which had been low balling intensity for the last few days. Now says it's a hurricane and getting stronger...

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 01:46 PM

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1411740535895826433

Mike (@mikeremaley1)

Based on Cuban radar data it appears that we have an organizing mid-level center off the southern tip of Cuba moving towards the west northwest. Not sure if this is a low level center stacked with the mid level center or if it is still decoupled but it is interesting. 1/2

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 04-Jul-21 01:57 PM

TWC said 60 mph winds

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 02:02 PM

Oh wow

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 04-Jul-21 03:14 PM

This was lucky to hit hurricane status tbh lol

Has never really looked well organized, just enough to make it

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Jul-21 03:45 PM

Tons of dry air just wrecking it now

So much land interaction

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 04:08 PM

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1411774742021873666

Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather)

More ECMWF ensemble members than previous runs show #Elsa possibly restrengthening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and again off the East Coast over the Gulf Stream

Trends worth watching

https://t.co/qFBvJYoWvQ

We'll see what the GFS says.

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL)

Has never really looked well organized, just enough to make it

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 04-Jul-21 04:12 PM

It had a pretty solid CDO and banding when it first moved thru the LA. Has only been downhill since

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 04:28 PM

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411769411837562886

Andrew Moore (@OSUWXGUY)

Looks like the low level center jogged northwest over the past 6 hours and is closer to Cuba than what I would have thought this morning. Seems to be tightening up a bit and as it moves WNW or NW this evening it will be over some very warm, deep water ~29.5 to 30°C

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 06:18 PM

https://twitter.com/diarioelheraldo/status/1411809470259281921

Diario El Heraldo (@diarioelheraldo)

Los vientos de la tormenta tropical Elsa se sienten en Cabo Cruz, Granma

️

️ Cortesía: Redes Sociales #Elsa #TormentaElsa #tormentatropical #Cuba https://t.co/yzFpnj9tXe

Recon (AF304) is heading into Elsa now.

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 04-Jul-21 08:42 PM

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411845859021660160

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

Wise words from Paul. You never know when a convective pulse in a sheared storm is going to briefly crank things up a bit. Might be temporary but if timed with landfall could lead to a period of nasty weather. https://t.co/D70zvC41Ak

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 05-Jul-21 12:25 AM

This is how bad the euro has done with Elsa so far

Chris (Eastern WI) 05-Jul-21 07:09 AM

Big rip

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Jul-21 10:34 AM

Good old 65mph wave.

Well at least the models were good about the path. But a wave trying to RI for a week straight and not being able to find a center is a new one for me

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Jul-21 10:46 AM

The circ is definitely closed just poorly defined.

Did RI on entry into the Caribbean into a pretty potent early season cane. Beyond that the environment just wasn't there especially with such a small vortex.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Jul-21 12:03 PM

Low level convergence was simply too weak for a proper storm of that size. And we've got another hot tower blowup again...

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 05-Jul-21 12:31 PM

With that, the tornado threat has increased.

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 05-Jul-21 02:24 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/861671820964790282/image0.gif?width=976&height=936

HMON does not think Elsa would recover enough.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Jul-21 03:08 PM

On the other hand the Euro makes this a high end cat 1 in the gulf.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 05-Jul-21 03:09 PM

Wait….

Wot

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Jul-21 03:19 PM

Waiting for the north movement to add some Coriolis

Could help it finally spin up with some baroclinic intensification

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Jul-21 03:21 PM

https://tenor.com/view/hes-dead-star-trek-bones-gif-15263308

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 05-Jul-21 03:41 PM

Well here we go, first Elsa-related TOR https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1412133555371528193

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

Tornado Warning including Hialeah FL, Miami Lakes FL, Hialeah Gardens FL until 4:00 PM EDT

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 05-Jul-21 04:31 PM

https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1412146423248789504?s=21

NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC)

A MODERATE risk is in effect in our Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. More details: https://t.co/FQU5sb4jjg

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 05-Jul-21 05:00 PM

https://twitter.com/dunklecodywx/status/1412149324289556484?s=21

CodyDunkleWX (@DunkleCodyWX)

#Elsa has made landfall in western Cuba between Cienfuegos and Ciénega de Zapata National Park. Though most of the storm’s convection is placed in the eastern half, flooding and damaging winds can be expected across much of the country. Next stop is FL! #tropics #wxtwitter #flwx https://t.co/6TdXYoiHRa

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 05-Jul-21 05:02 PM

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1412154197076811776

Hank Dolce (@hankd_wx)

#Elsa can now be seen using Key West radar, and it’s currently moving over Cuba. This seems to be actually tightening the center somewhat via frictional convergence despite the decrease in wind speeds. It could emerge into the Gulf as a decently defined TS if this pattern holds. https://t.co/ZR3SsWig8t

Jessica B. (Northern KY)

https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1412146423248789504?s=21

Chris (Eastern WI) 05-Jul-21 05:31 PM

Oh hey I'm in the slight. Nice

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Jul-21 09:15 PM

looks like we're heading into the tornado zone for elsa

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 05-Jul-21 09:17 PM

Sebring, FL would be my TA

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 05-Jul-21 10:42 PM

https://twitter.com/dunklecodywx/status/1412236971179753472?s=21

CodyDunkleWX (@DunkleCodyWX)

Large #flooding threat for western Florida coupled with an attendant #tornado threat are increasing as #Elsa approaches from the south. Now that Elsa is leaving Cuba, Florida needs to be on high alert for any changes in forecast intensity and track. Stay safe! #tropics #wxtwitter

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 06-Jul-21 08:57 AM

https://twitter.com/dunklecodywx/status/1412391338159611904?s=21

CodyDunkleWX (@DunkleCodyWX)

#hurricane watches are posted for Florida as #Elsa begins to wrap convection up shear near the center and is showing signs of intensification. Wind, tornadoes, and flooding are all substantial risks with this system. Stay tuned for updates! #tropics #wxtwitter #flwx @RadarScope https://t.co/WXXkE8lzum

Cameron (KMXX | GA) 06-Jul-21 11:12 AM

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1412428432533868555

Hank Dolce (@hankd_wx)

#Elsa looks to have developed a partial eyewall NW of the Keys. Velocity data from KBYX depicts a large swath of hurricane force winds within said eyewall at 900-850mb, so it’s possible Elsa is stronger than the 50kt intensity given by NHC. Recon is headed in to assess the storm. https://t.co/LexccmUAC9

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 11:57 AM

Not dead yet

Hey Cody remember when I said some of the best summer season severi events occur during or after a tropical storm in the southeast?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Not dead yet

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 11:59 AM

Yep. Lots of lightning in the N eyewall. Velocities at 5K ft are near 100 mph off the Key West radar.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 06-Jul-21 11:59 AM

Fuck

Looks like I should’ve went

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:00 PM

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 06-Jul-21 12:00 PM

But oh well, we don’t want TS....we want Cat 2’s at least

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:00 PM

Microwave finally showing eyewall intensification

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 06-Jul-21 12:00 PM

This thing may

Try to go up to Cat 1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:00 PM

It's over Charley like waters and conditions

But the baroclinic forcing can only get it up so fast. Cat 2 max

Also, let me just praise GFS. 7 days out and had the almost perfect Florida landfall

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Also, let me just praise GFS. 7 days out and had the almost perfect Florida landfall

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 12:05 PM

Crushed the Euro this time out.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:05 PM

You guys watching that hot tower try a d move upshear? Is it gonna RI?

Hank Dolce (College Station, TX) 06-Jul-21 12:12 PM

I can see steady intensification occurring but RI is gonna be a tough feat. This would essentially have to make it to C2 by the time it makes landfall for that to happen

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

You guys watching that hot tower try a d move upshear? Is it gonna RI?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 12:13 PM

To hit RI threshold it would have to hit ~~105kt/Cat 3~~ 80kt/ High end Cat 1. Actually somewhat doable (edited)

Hank Dolce (College Station, TX) 06-Jul-21 12:13 PM

It’s at 50kt right now and the official definition is 30kts/24hr. So it would need to get to 80kt, which is a high end C1/borderline C2.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 12:13 PM

Yeah I don't know where my math was coming from haha

The 6z Euro (which admittedly has done terribly with Elsa) still gets it down to 982, with a storm this compact that could be right around 80kt.

Hank Dolce (College Station, TX) 06-Jul-21 12:18 PM

It did poorly with it when it was in the Caribbean but since Saturday it’s done a good job handling the storm I think.

1

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 12:20 PM

GFS has been nailing track.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Hey Cody remember when I said some of the best summer season severi events occur during or after a tropical storm in the southeast?

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 06-Jul-21 12:22 PM

Yeah…

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:22 PM

So here was the recon analysis from yest: (edited)

There ar some gusts in that storm that are just bonkers

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 06-Jul-21 12:25 PM

Ah. That’s Interesting.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:26 PM

Current satellite estimated

Hank Dolce (College Station, TX) 06-Jul-21 12:31 PM

Not sure how accurate those plots actually are. Yeah those 128kt obs are obviously erroneous but as a whole these plots historically speaking haven’t been all too accurate. They’re satellite based but use a different technique from scatterometer data. Not sure exactly how it works but it doesn’t work nearly as well imo

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 12:45 PM

The sat one seems to be more accurate this time around. The one based on recon uses an algorithm based on what the flight spits out. But this is a funky storm and it did some bad maths

But it's also quite likely that those recon numbers could be from a meso vorticity hense the high vels in a small area that was under heavy convection

And as we know from last year, NHC doesn't count meso vort winds toward storm velocity

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:03 PM

Recon is in. Sfmr already over 55kts

Eye may be exposed but winds wrapping around to the NW side well

Recon confirming that sat based wind estimate is way way too low way off on location

We down to 999

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 06-Jul-21 01:16 PM

First tornado warning of the afternoon northwest of Miami FL.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:17 PM

Our boy ships has this as a mid cat 1. I'ma hold on to that and say cat 1 landfall

We could have a Sally on our hands. Looking at how well the low level convergence is now feeding the center

First Dropsonde in finds 1000mb. But 925 mb layer was very low. Last 2 ticks went from 961 to 1000. Smells like the mid level cyclone is very strong and the weakness is the surface low

Zack Fuller (Long Island, NY) 06-Jul-21 01:46 PM

Hurricane warnings incoming for Florida

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 01:47 PM

Special advisory. 5 kt away from a hurricane now.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 01:48 PM

Good call on the intensification @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) & @Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:49 PM

I have a feeling it's been more intense than we had figured most of this time, but the mid.level circulation is now stable enough to mix the winds down better

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 01:49 PM

Recon hasn't been in storm since Cuban landfall

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:50 PM

It's a good 18-24 hours ahead of forecast intensity. Cat 2 is in range if we get a sally

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 01:50 PM

75kt winds at flight level, so another couple bursts of convection and this is a hurricane.

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 01:51 PM

Recon getting hammered now. Way way out in the inflow

Watch those S winds go bonkers overnight as the LLJ aids it

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 02:16 PM

Looks like recon found a small area of >64 kt winds in the east semicircle https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF302-1305A-ELSA.png

Zack Fuller (Long Island, NY) 06-Jul-21 02:16 PM

I honestly think its a hurricane right now in that eyewall

its also organizing more, specifically a western eyewall is becoming more pronounced

Zack Fuller (Long Island, NY)

I honestly think its a hurricane right now in that eyewall

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 02:20 PM

Agreed

Zack Fuller (Long Island, NY) 06-Jul-21 02:21 PM

Also pretty impressive area of >50 Knt winds on SFMR, we'll see if that's realized on the ground (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 06-Jul-21 02:22 PM

Damn if today couldn’t get any worse

Now it’s going to cat 1

And I had everything called off

Cause of my parents peer pressure

I said no

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 02:28 PM

Sfmr to 60 now. Borderline cat 1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Sfmr to 60 now. Borderline cat 1

Zack Fuller (Long Island, NY) 06-Jul-21 02:29 PM

I wonder if thats the eyewall or the band proceeding the eyewall

I think its the latter but we'll see

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 02:30 PM

I agree it's the burst band. Strongest winds likes on the north side due to the wrapping

Noticable westerly nudge on the burst last few sat frames. The further west it goes the stronger it will get

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 02:32 PM

Center pass just came in. Pressure 999.8mb with no higher winds

Gonna have to wait for convection to wrap back into the center for more intensification

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 02:39 PM

Morgerman is heading to Florida to intercept now

It's still eating some dry air on the west. Overnight we'll get to see the real beast

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 03:11 PM

1000mb at 24 kts. It's strengthening still

Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

Damn if today couldn’t get any worse

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 03:24 PM

There will better in the future.

4

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 06-Jul-21 03:33 PM

And Elsa is failing at the attempt to wrap its convection up-shear. The westerly shear is still a bit too strong. The vortex of this will likely remain unstacked. Chances of substantial intensification are pretty low.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/783943223399546900/862052837425020948/image0.gif

Chris (Eastern WI) 06-Jul-21 03:45 PM

~~Elsa porn~~

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 06-Jul-21 03:48 PM

Seems legit.

We'll have to see what the 5pm advisory says.

Brad D. (Cascade, IA) 06-Jul-21 04:46 PM

There’s this

Still a Tropical Storm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 05:58 PM

Split in tht towers. One is trying to occlude around the center

Now at it's 2nd strongest rating so far(using ike not wind) (edited)

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 06-Jul-21 06:13 PM

Oh wow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jul-21 06:32 PM

Likely a mid level eye formed. Surface is still detached

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 06-Jul-21 07:34 PM

Its trying

Very interesting considering the pressure is 998mb

Although we will see where its at in about 25 mins

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 07:37 PM

When is the next recon supposed to be in there?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS)

When is the next recon supposed to be in there?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 07:38 PM

30 minutes or so.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 07:47 PM

Now a hurricane (again)

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL)

30 minutes or so.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Jul-21 07:49 PM

Cool thanks.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 07:57 PM

Lining up for a pass now

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jul-21 08:10 PM

Looks like it's weakened or held steady.

Anthony (Broward, FL) 06-Jul-21 08:14 PM

it looks horrific on radar

such a mess of a storm

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 06-Jul-21 08:16 PM

it may be a mess Anthony, but Elsa is causing major fits down in Florida

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Jul-21 08:16 PM

DMAX shall be interesting tonight...

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Jul-21 08:40 PM

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1412571786462613508

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

Such an odd storm, now pressure rising again and clearly, winds are much weaker on the west, south, and southeast side of the circulation, but that Northeast side has a crazy intense band with the really strong winds in it. #Elsa

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Jul-21 10:19 PM

https://twitter.com/CharlesRoopWCTV/status/1412596631187361792

Charles Roop (@CharlesRoopWCTV)

#Elsa’s presentation on radar… https://t.co/L8XHA0GMgN

1

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 06-Jul-21 10:31 PM

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1412412808130617347?s=09

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

The 06z run of HAFS-B did a pretty good job depicting the convection that tried to form an eyewall this morning in #Elsa. On the model, this process briefly deepened the TC, but did not permanently align the vortex, and it weakened later. We'll see what #Elsa actually does.

HAFS-B nailed that.

Don't be surprised if this continues to weaken a bit.

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Jul-21 12:06 AM

Looks like it took a shot of dry air

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 07-Jul-21 09:21 AM

Oh yeah, plus the shear.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 01:17 PM

We were all busy watching elsa when last night a random semi-tropical low blew up on the tx coast and is causing flooding (edited)

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 07-Jul-21 02:28 PM

Oh wow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Jul-21 03:48 PM

looks like the central american gyre just decided to move to S tx for a few days

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 07-Jul-21 04:11 PM

That low has some impressive spin on sat imagery

Came outta nowhere

Chris (Eastern WI) 07-Jul-21 04:32 PM

Dahell? O.o

Kyle Kipple | Jax, FL 07-Jul-21 04:56 PM

Tornado touching down across Jacksonville on east side of town

Jessica B. (Northern KY) 07-Jul-21 05:32 PM

https://twitter.com/iembot_jax/status/1412867095134539778

IEMBot JAX (@iembot_jax)

At 3:30 PM EDT, 6 SSW Downtown Jacksonv [Duval Co, FL] BROADCAST MEDIA reports TSTM WND DMG. 1 FATAL IN THE ORTEGA NEIGHBORHOOD IN JACKSONVILLE, THERE WAS A CONFIRMED FATALITY WITH A TREE FELLING ON TWO CARS ON ROOSEVELT BLVD. https://t.co/BZqjK8iOBH